Football · El Salvador Apertura · 01/08, 23:00

Prediction: Fuerte San Francisco vs Internacional Santa Tecla

Team pages: Fuerte San Francisco · Internacional Santa Tecla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Fuerte San Francisco1

Internacional Santa Tecla1.54

1X2

24% 27% 49%

Fuerte San Francisco Draw Internacional Santa Tecla

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Fuerte San Francisco 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWWLDL

Internacional Santa Tecla 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DDWWWLLWDD

Head-to-head

Fuerte San Francisco 0–2–2 Internacional Santa Tecla (4 last)

Fuerte San Francisco0-0Internacional Santa Tecla
Internacional Santa Tecla2-0Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco2-3Internacional Santa Tecla
Internacional Santa Tecla0-0Fuerte San Francisco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Fuerte San Francisco 1439 · Internacional Santa Tecla 1542

	Fuerte San Francisco	Draw	Internacional Santa Tecla
Our model	23%	28%	49%
Market	24%	27%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Internacional Santa Tecla (rating 1439 vs 1542).
H2H favours Internacional Santa Tecla: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Fuerte San Francisco	Internacional Santa Tecla
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.3	5.4 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.75

X3.40

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:27 +15’	3.75	3.40	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Fuerte San Francisco 0–2–2 Internacional Santa Tecla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/03/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-0 HT 0-0	Internacional Santa Tecla
22/01/26 El Salvador Clausura	Internacional Santa Tecla	2-0 HT 2-0	Fuerte San Francisco
24/09/25 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	2-3 HT 1-1	Internacional Santa Tecla
24/07/25 El Salvador Clausura	Internacional Santa Tecla	0-0 HT 0-0	Fuerte San Francisco

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Isidro Metapan	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	CD Luis Angel Firpo	2	1	1	0	5	1	4
3	Alianza FC	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
4	CD Cacahuatique	2	1	0	1	6	6	3
5	CD FAS	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
5	Municipal Limeno	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
7	CD Aguila	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
8	Internacional Santa Tecla	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
9	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	1	0	1	0	1	1	1
10	Atlético Balboa	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
11	Fuerte San Francisco	2	0	1	1	1	5	1
12	CD INCA	2	0	0	2	1	5	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Fuerte San Francisco	Internacional Santa Tecla
Zacatecoluca FC	0-1 L	0-2 L
Municipal Limeno	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Fuerte San Francisco

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
26/07	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
01/05	Alianza FC El Salvador Clausura	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
26/04	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Clausura	2-0	3-1	3	8	W
21/04	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Cup	1-0	1-0	2	5	W
19/04	Zacatecoluca FC El Salvador Clausura	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
15/04	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Clausura	1-0	1-1	1	5	D
12/04	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Clausura	0-1	0-2	11	7	L
09/04	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Cup	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
05/04	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Clausura	0-1	0-2	7	0	L

Internacional Santa Tecla

DDWWWLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	CD Aguila El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
25/07	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
11/05	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Clausura	0-0	2-1	13	7	W
08/05	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Clausura	0-2	0-2	3	8	L
01/05	Zacatecoluca FC El Salvador Clausura	0-1	0-2	9	5	L
26/04	Municipal Limeno El Salvador Clausura	1-1	2-1	4	6	W
23/04	Zacatecoluca FC El Salvador Cup	0-0	2-1	5	2	W
19/04	CD Aguila El Salvador Clausura	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/04	CD FAS El Salvador Clausura	2-1	2-2	3	10	D
12/04	CD Hercules El Salvador Clausura	0-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Fuerte San Francisco vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Internacional Santa Tecla win (49%). Probabilities: Fuerte San Francisco 24%, draw 27%, Internacional Santa Tecla 49%.

How many goals are expected in Fuerte San Francisco vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Fuerte San Francisco 1 · Internacional Santa Tecla 1.54), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Fuerte San Francisco vs Internacional Santa Tecla?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.