Football · El Salvador Apertura · 30/08, 23:00

Prediction: CD Aguila vs Fuerte San Francisco

Team pages: CD Aguila · Fuerte San Francisco

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.56Total

CD Aguila1.68

Fuerte San Francisco0.88

1X2

56% 26% 19%

CD Aguila Draw Fuerte San Francisco

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

CD Aguila 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDDLLL

Fuerte San Francisco 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLDLDDWL

Head-to-head

CD Aguila 3–3–0 Fuerte San Francisco (6 last)

CD Aguila1-1Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-1CD Aguila
Fuerte San Francisco2-3CD Aguila
CD Aguila3-3Fuerte San Francisco
Fuerte San Francisco0-0CD Aguila
CD Aguila3-0Fuerte San Francisco

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CD Aguila 1509 · Fuerte San Francisco 1472

	CD Aguila	Draw	Fuerte San Francisco
Our model	55%	26%	18%
Market	56%	25%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 2.56 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours CD Aguila: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CD Aguila	Fuerte San Francisco
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.4	0.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.3	2.3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.8 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.50

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Pinn 1.65
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.16 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
16:26 +6’	1.60	3.50	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:32	1.64	3.44	5.26
18:33 +2’	1.65▲	3.41▼	5.16▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · CD Aguila 3–3–0 Fuerte San Francisco

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/26 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	1-1 HT 1-1	Fuerte San Francisco
26/02/26 El Salvador Cup	Fuerte San Francisco	0-1 HT 0-0	CD Aguila
04/02/26 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	2-3 HT 0-2	CD Aguila
29/10/25 El Salvador Apertura	CD Aguila	3-3 HT 3-1	Fuerte San Francisco
10/08/25 El Salvador Clausura	Fuerte San Francisco	0-0 HT 0-0	CD Aguila
17/04/25 El Salvador Clausura	CD Aguila	3-0 HT 3-0	Fuerte San Francisco

Standings · El Salvador Apertura

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	AD Isidro Metapan	6	4	1	1	10	4	13
2	Internacional Santa Tecla	6	3	3	0	9	3	12
3	CD Luis Angel Firpo	5	3	2	0	8	1	11
4	CD FAS	6	3	1	2	10	6	10
5	CD Platense Zacatecoluca	6	2	3	1	8	6	9
6	Atlético Balboa	6	2	3	1	8	7	9
7	Municipal Limeno	6	2	1	3	7	8	7
8	CD Cacahuatique	6	1	3	2	9	11	6
9	Fuerte San Francisco	6	1	3	2	4	8	6
10	Alianza FC	5	1	2	2	5	7	5
11	CD Aguila	6	0	3	3	6	10	3
12	CD INCA Aruba	6	0	1	5	2	15	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CD Aguila	Fuerte San Francisco
Atlético Balboa	2-4 L	0-1 L
AD Isidro Metapan	1-2 L	1-0 W
CD Cacahuatique	2-2 D	0-0 D
Internacional Santa Tecla	0-0 D	2-2 D
CD Luis Angel Firpo	1-1 D	0-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Fuerte San Francisco (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

CD Aguila

WWLWDDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	CD FAS El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
15/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-4	3	8	L
08/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
02/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	2-2	7	6	D
31/07	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	7	D
26/07	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
14/12	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
07/12	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	8	12	L
30/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	2-0	4	10	W
24/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	0-1	2-1	14	7	W

Fuerte San Francisco

DDWLDLDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Atlético Balboa El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
15/08	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-0	8	0	W
09/08	CD Cacahuatique El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	5	7	D
01/08	Internacional Santa Tecla El Salvador Apertura	2-1	2-2	4	10	D
30/07	CD Luis Angel Firpo El Salvador Apertura	0-2	0-4	1	2	L
26/07	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/11	Alianza FC El Salvador Apertura	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
09/11	AD Isidro Metapan El Salvador Apertura	1-1	2-1	4	2	W
05/11	Zacatecoluca FC El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	10	7	D
01/11	CD Platense Zacatecoluca El Salvador Apertura	0-0	0-0	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CD Aguila vs Fuerte San Francisco?

According to our model, the most likely result is a CD Aguila win (56%). Probabilities: CD Aguila 56%, draw 26%, Fuerte San Francisco 19%.

How many goals are expected in CD Aguila vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model expects 2.56 goals (CD Aguila 1.68 · Fuerte San Francisco 0.88), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in CD Aguila vs Fuerte San Francisco?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.