Football · Croatia 1.NL · 27/09, 18:30

Prediction: HNK Cibalia vs NK Dugopolje

Team pages: HNK Cibalia · NK Dugopolje

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.45Total

HNK Cibalia1.42

NK Dugopolje1.03

1X2

45% 29% 26%

HNK Cibalia Draw NK Dugopolje

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

HNK Cibalia 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWWDWDDDDW

NK Dugopolje 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWDDLW

Head-to-head

HNK Cibalia 2–2–2 NK Dugopolje (6 last)

NK Dugopolje2-1HNK Cibalia
NK Dugopolje2-1HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia1-0NK Dugopolje
NK Dugopolje1-1HNK Cibalia
HNK Cibalia2-1NK Dugopolje
NK Dugopolje1-1HNK Cibalia

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · HNK Cibalia 1523 · NK Dugopolje 1494

	HNK Cibalia	Draw	NK Dugopolje
Our model	45%	29%	26%
Market	45%	28%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	HNK Cibalia	NK Dugopolje
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.4	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 4.7	1.7 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.20

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.77

2 (+0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.00▼	Bet365 2.00
X	3.10 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20
2	3.00 → 3.40▲	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:38 +4’	2.20	3.10	3.00
16:30 +12’	2.00▼	3.20▲	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · HNK Cibalia 2–2–2 NK Dugopolje

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dugopolje	2-1 HT 2-1	HNK Cibalia
14/03/26 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dugopolje	2-1 HT 0-1	HNK Cibalia
19/10/25 Croatia 1.NL	HNK Cibalia	1-0 HT 0-0	NK Dugopolje
31/05/25 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dugopolje	1-1 HT 0-1	HNK Cibalia
22/02/25 Croatia 1.NL	HNK Cibalia	2-1 HT 1-0	NK Dugopolje
28/09/24 Croatia 1.NL	NK Dugopolje	1-1 HT 0-1	HNK Cibalia

Standings · Croatia 1.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jadran LP	6	3	2	1	11	7	11
2	Mladost Zdralovi	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
3	NK Croatia Zmijavci	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
4	HNK Cibalia	6	2	4	0	6	4	10
5	HNK Segesta	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
6	Bijelo Brdo	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
7	NK Sesvete	6	3	0	3	9	6	9
8	NK Dugopolje	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
9	Orijent	6	2	2	2	6	5	8
10	NK Dubrava Zagreb	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
11	Vukovar 91	6	2	2	2	11	13	8
12	Karlovac	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
13	Dinamo Zagreb II	6	2	0	4	10	11	6
14	NK Kustosija	6	1	3	2	3	4	6
15	NK Opatija	6	1	1	4	7	10	4
16	Hrvace	6	1	1	4	4	12	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	HNK Cibalia	NK Dugopolje
NK Sesvete	2-1 W	2-1 W
NK Kustosija	0-0 D	1-1 D
Orijent	0-0 D	0-3 L
Bijelo Brdo	1-1 D	1-2 L
NK Rudes	3-2 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: HNK Cibalia (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

HNK Cibalia

WWWDWDDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	2-1	2-1	5	3	W
12/09	NK Kustosija Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
05/09	Vukovar 91 Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-1	4	5	D
02/09	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
28/08	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-1	5	8	D
22/08	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	2-1	2-1	6	6	W
30/05	NK Jarun Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-1	5	1	D
23/05	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
15/05	NK Rudes Croatia 1.NL	3-1	3-2	1	5	W
09/05	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-0	5	4	W

NK Dugopolje

LWLLDWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Dinamo Zagreb II Croatia 1.NL	2-0	3-2	4	2	W
12/09	HNK Segesta Croatia 1.NL	1-2	1-2	3	7	L
05/09	Mladost Zdralovi Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
02/09	Karlovac Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
28/08	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	2-1	2-1	1	3	W
22/08	NK Kustosija Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-1	2	2	D
30/05	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-3	6	1	L
23/05	NK Rudes Croatia 1.NL	0-2	0-3	6	2	L
16/05	NK Sesvete Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-1	0	3	W
09/05	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	1-1	1-2	2	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in HNK Cibalia vs NK Dugopolje?

According to our model, the most likely result is a HNK Cibalia win (45%). Probabilities: HNK Cibalia 45%, draw 29%, NK Dugopolje 26%.

How many goals are expected in HNK Cibalia vs NK Dugopolje?

The model expects 2.45 goals (HNK Cibalia 1.42 · NK Dugopolje 1.03), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in HNK Cibalia vs NK Dugopolje?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.