Football · Croatia 1.NL · 27/09, 16:00

Prediction: NK Croatia Zmijavci vs NK Sesvete

Team pages: NK Croatia Zmijavci · NK Sesvete

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.36Total

NK Croatia Zmijavci1.35

NK Sesvete1.01

1X2

44% 29% 27%

NK Croatia Zmijavci Draw NK Sesvete

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Croatia Zmijavci 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWWDLL

NK Sesvete 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLWLLWWL

Head-to-head

NK Croatia Zmijavci 1–2–3 NK Sesvete (6 last)

NK Sesvete1-1NK Croatia Zmijavci
NK Sesvete1-1NK Croatia Zmijavci
NK Croatia Zmijavci0-1NK Sesvete
NK Sesvete0-1NK Croatia Zmijavci
NK Croatia Zmijavci0-4NK Sesvete
NK Sesvete3-2NK Croatia Zmijavci

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Croatia Zmijavci 1519 · NK Sesvete 1478

	NK Croatia Zmijavci	Draw	NK Sesvete
Our model	43%	30%	27%
Market	44%	29%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Croatia Zmijavci (rating 1519 vs 1478).
H2H favours NK Sesvete: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Croatia Zmijavci	NK Sesvete
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.8	1.8 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.10

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.05

Under 2.251.75

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +15’	2.05	3.10	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Croatia Zmijavci 1–2–3 NK Sesvete

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Croatia 1.NL	NK Sesvete	1-1 HT 0-0	NK Croatia Zmijavci
14/11/25 Croatia 1.NL	NK Sesvete	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Croatia Zmijavci
07/09/25 Croatia 1.NL	NK Croatia Zmijavci	0-1 HT 0-0	NK Sesvete
09/05/25 Croatia 1.NL	NK Sesvete	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Croatia Zmijavci
10/11/24 Croatia 1.NL	NK Croatia Zmijavci	0-4 HT 0-1	NK Sesvete
30/08/24 Croatia 1.NL	NK Sesvete	3-2 HT 2-0	NK Croatia Zmijavci

Standings · Croatia 1.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jadran LP	6	3	2	1	11	7	11
2	Mladost Zdralovi	6	3	2	1	6	5	11
3	NK Croatia Zmijavci	6	3	1	2	9	6	10
4	HNK Cibalia	6	2	4	0	6	4	10
5	HNK Segesta	6	3	1	2	8	7	10
6	Bijelo Brdo	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
7	NK Sesvete	6	3	0	3	9	6	9
8	NK Dugopolje	6	2	3	1	9	8	9
9	Orijent	6	2	2	2	6	5	8
10	NK Dubrava Zagreb	6	2	2	2	6	6	8
11	Vukovar 91	6	2	2	2	11	13	8
12	Karlovac	6	2	1	3	7	9	7
13	Dinamo Zagreb II	6	2	0	4	10	11	6
14	NK Kustosija	6	1	3	2	3	4	6
15	NK Opatija	6	1	1	4	7	10	4
16	Hrvace	6	1	1	4	4	12	4

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Croatia Zmijavci

LLWWWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/09	NK Kustosija Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
13/09	Vukovar 91 Croatia 1.NL	1-1	2-3	7	2	L
06/09	Orijent Croatia 1.NL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
02/09	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-0	5	3	W
28/08	NK Dubrava Zagreb Croatia 1.NL	0-1	2-1	5	3	W
23/08	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	0-0	3-0	10	7	W
30/05	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	0-0	1-0	7	8	W
24/05	Hrvace Croatia 1.NL	1-0	3-0	5	1	W
15/05	NK Opatija Croatia 1.NL	1-1	1-3	4	1	L
10/05	NK Jarun Croatia 1.NL	0-2	1-2	6	6	L

NK Sesvete

LLWLWLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/09	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	1-2	1-2	7	3	L
11/09	Dinamo Zagreb II Croatia 1.NL	2-1	2-1	3	4	W
05/09	HNK Segesta Croatia 1.NL	0-0	2-0	2	8	W
02/09	Mladost Zdralovi Croatia 1.NL	0-0	0-1	2	7	L
28/08	NK Dugopolje Croatia 1.NL	1-2	1-2	8	3	L
21/08	Karlovac Croatia 1.NL	0-0	3-0	4	6	W
29/05	NK Rudes Croatia 1.NL	1-1	1-3	5	4	L
22/05	Bijelo Brdo Croatia 1.NL	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
16/05	NK Dugopolje Croatia 1.NL	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
09/05	HNK Cibalia Croatia 1.NL	0-1	0-2	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Croatia Zmijavci vs NK Sesvete?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Croatia Zmijavci win (44%). Probabilities: NK Croatia Zmijavci 44%, draw 29%, NK Sesvete 27%.

How many goals are expected in NK Croatia Zmijavci vs NK Sesvete?

The model expects 2.36 goals (NK Croatia Zmijavci 1.35 · NK Sesvete 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Croatia Zmijavci vs NK Sesvete?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.