Football · Moldova Divizia Nationala · 26/07, 19:00

Prediction: Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC Milsami

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.48Total

Sheriff Tiraspol1.84

FC Milsami0.63

1X2

66% 21% 12%

Sheriff Tiraspol Draw FC Milsami

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Not both to score 52%

Most likely score

1-0

Recent form · 10 last

Sheriff Tiraspol 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWWDDWWWL

FC Milsami 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDDLDLLW

Head-to-head

Sheriff Tiraspol 3–2–1 FC Milsami (6 last)

FC Milsami0-0Sheriff Tiraspol
Sheriff Tiraspol3-1FC Milsami
FC Milsami1-0Sheriff Tiraspol

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sheriff Tiraspol 1596 · FC Milsami 1454

	Sheriff Tiraspol	Draw	FC Milsami
Our model	66%	23%	11%
Market	67%	20%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sheriff Tiraspol (rating 1596 vs 1454).
H2H favours Sheriff Tiraspol: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sheriff Tiraspol	FC Milsami
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 0.9	0.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.7	1.5 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	5.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.33

X4.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:47

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:44 +3’	1.33	4.50	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sheriff Tiraspol 3–2–1 FC Milsami

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Moldova Divizia Nationala	FC Milsami	0-0 HT 0-0	Sheriff Tiraspol
11/04/26 Moldova Divizia Nationala	Sheriff Tiraspol	3-1 HT 1-1	FC Milsami
26/10/25 Moldova Divizia Nationala	FC Milsami	1-0 HT 1-0	Sheriff Tiraspol
24/08/25 Moldova Divizia Nationala	Sheriff Tiraspol	1-1 HT 1-1	FC Milsami
05/07/25 Moldova Divizia Nationala	FC Milsami	1-2 HT 1-1	Sheriff Tiraspol
24/05/25 Moldova Cup	Sheriff Tiraspol	2-1 HT 0-0	FC Milsami

Standings · Moldova Divizia Nationala

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Sheriff Tiraspol	4	3	1	0	10	4	10
2	CS Petrocub	4	2	1	1	10	5	7
3	FC Politehnica Chisinau	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
4	Dacia Buiucani	4	2	0	2	6	7	6
5	Zimbru Chisinau	4	1	2	1	6	5	5
6	FC Milsami	4	1	1	2	2	7	4
7	FC Balti	4	1	1	2	5	6	4
8	FC Real Sireti	4	0	1	3	2	9	1

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sheriff Tiraspol	FC Milsami
CS Petrocub	3-2 W	0-5 L
Zimbru Chisinau	4-2 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sheriff Tiraspol (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sheriff Tiraspol

WDWWDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Maccabi Tel Aviv UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-2	0-5	4	6	L
19/07	CS Petrocub Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-0	3-2	6	4	W
16/07	NK Aluminij UEFA Europa League Qualifying	1-0	1-0	2	4	W
12/07	Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Divizia Nationala	2-1	4-2	2	3	W
09/07	NK Aluminij UEFA Europa League Qualifying	0-0	0-0	7	3	D
04/07	FC Politehnica Chisinau Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	0-0	9	3	D
28/06	FC Real Sireti Moldova Divizia Nationala	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
23/05	Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Cup	1-0	2-0	1	6	W
17/05	FC Milsami Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
13/05	CS Petrocub Moldova Cup	1-0	2-0	6	3	W

FC Milsami

LWLDDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	FC Balti Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
16/07	Velez Mostar UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	0-1	1	7	L
12/07	Dacia Buiucani Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	0-1	6	9	L
09/07	Velez Mostar UEFA Conference League Qualifying	0-0	1-1	2	7	D
04/07	CS Petrocub Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-2	0-5	8	4	L
27/06	Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
17/05	Sheriff Tiraspol Moldova Divizia Nationala	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
13/05	Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Cup	0-0	0-1	9	4	L
09/05	Dacia Buiucani Moldova Divizia Nationala	2-1	2-1	5	7	W
06/05	Zimbru Chisinau Moldova Cup	0-1	0-2	3	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC Milsami?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sheriff Tiraspol win (66%). Probabilities: Sheriff Tiraspol 66%, draw 21%, FC Milsami 12%.

How many goals are expected in Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC Milsami?

The model expects 2.48 goals (Sheriff Tiraspol 1.84 · FC Milsami 0.63), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Sheriff Tiraspol vs FC Milsami?

The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.