Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 10/08, 20:45
Prediction: Carshalton Ath vs Wingate & Finchley
Team pages: Carshalton Ath · Wingate & Finchley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.03Total
Carshalton Ath1.64
Wingate & Finchley1.39
1X2
Carshalton Ath
Draw
Wingate & Finchley
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 64%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Carshalton Ath
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Wingate & Finchley
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Carshalton Ath
2–2–2
Wingate & Finchley
(6 last)
- Carshalton Ath4-1Wingate & Finchley
- Wingate & Finchley2-2Carshalton Ath
- Wingate & Finchley3-2Carshalton Ath
- Carshalton Ath0-0Wingate & Finchley
- Wingate & Finchley2-1Carshalton Ath
- Carshalton Ath3-2Wingate & Finchley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Carshalton Ath 1494 · Wingate & Finchley 1442
| Carshalton Ath | Draw | Wingate & Finchley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 26% | 32% |
| Market | 43% | 26% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.03 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Carshalton Ath (rating 1494 vs 1442).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Carshalton Ath | Wingate & Finchley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 1 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 1 | 0.1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 0/63/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.3 / 2.8 | 1.5 / 2.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.8 / 0 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Carshalton Ath 2–2–2 Wingate & Finchley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England Isthmian Premier Division | Carshalton Ath | 4-1 | Wingate & Finchley |
| 06/12/25 England Isthmian Premier Division | Wingate & Finchley | 2-2 HT 1-2 | Carshalton Ath |
| 02/09/25 England FA Cup Qualification | Wingate & Finchley | 3-2 | Carshalton Ath |
| 30/08/25 England FA Cup Qualification | Carshalton Ath | 0-0 | Wingate & Finchley |
| 05/11/24 England Isthmian Premier Division | Wingate & Finchley | 2-1 HT 2-1 | Carshalton Ath |
| 12/08/24 England Ryman Premier Division | Carshalton Ath | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Wingate & Finchley |
Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dulwich | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Enfield Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | St Albans | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Brentwood Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Carshalton Ath | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 4 | Welling | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Dartford | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Leatherhead | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Aveley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 9 | Eastbourne Borough | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Cray Wanderers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 11 | Wingate & Finchley | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | Cheshunt | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 13 | Stanway Rovers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 15 | Three Bridges | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| 16 | Ramsgate | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Chatham Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | AFC Whyteleafe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Burgess Hill Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Whitehawk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Lewes | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 | Maldon Tiptree FC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Carshalton Ath
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Dover UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 21/07 | Sheerwater FC Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Hanworth Villa UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Farnborough Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Hampton & Richmond UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 06/04 | Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-2 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
Wingate & Finchley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 01/08 | Tonbridge Angels Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 25/07 | Chesham Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Hadley Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 14/07 | Kingstonian UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Uxbridge Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 07/07 | Waltham Abbey Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Royston Town Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Carshalton Ath vs Wingate & Finchley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Carshalton Ath win (42%). Probabilities: Carshalton Ath 42%, draw 26%, Wingate & Finchley 32%.
How many goals are expected in Carshalton Ath vs Wingate & Finchley?
The model expects 3.03 goals (Carshalton Ath 1.64 · Wingate & Finchley 1.39), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Carshalton Ath vs Wingate & Finchley?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.