Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: St Albans vs Lewes

Team pages: St Albans · Lewes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

St Albans2.03

Lewes1.01

1X2

60% 22% 18%

St Albans Draw Lewes

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St Albans 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDDWWW

Lewes 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWWLLD

Head-to-head

St Albans 1–1 Lewes (2 last)

Lewes1-0St Albans
St Albans3-0Lewes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St Albans 1575 · Lewes 1463

	St Albans	Draw	Lewes
Our model	60%	23%	17%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St Albans (rating 1575 vs 1463).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St Albans	Lewes
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.7	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/17/33%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.4	2.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.6	0.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.77

2 (+1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:57 +11’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · St Albans 1–0–1 Lewes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Lewes	1-0	St Albans
23/09/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	St Albans	3-0 HT 0-0	Lewes

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Leatherhead	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Carshalton Ath	2	2	0	0	4	0	6
3	St Albans	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
4	Dartford	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
5	Eastbourne Borough	2	1	1	0	5	4	4
6	Dulwich	2	1	0	1	7	3	3
7	Enfield Town	2	1	0	1	5	2	3
8	Ramsgate	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	Burgess Hill Town	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
10	Brentwood Town	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
11	Chatham Town	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
12	Welling	2	1	0	1	3	4	3
13	Maldon Tiptree FC	2	1	0	1	1	6	3
14	Cray Wanderers	2	0	2	0	1	1	2
15	Cheshunt	2	0	2	0	0	0	2
16	Aveley	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
17	Stanway Rovers	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
17	Wingate & Finchley	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
19	Whitehawk	2	0	1	1	0	2	1
20	Lewes	2	0	1	1	0	4	1
21	Three Bridges	2	0	0	2	4	6	0
22	AFC Whyteleafe	2	0	0	2	0	5	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St Albans	Lewes
Enfield Town	2-1 W	0-4 L
Chatham Town	3-1 W	1-2 L
Potters Bar Town	3-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: St Albans (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St Albans

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-1	9	11	W
08/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/08	Potters Bar Town UK Friendlies	1-1	3-1	1	1	W
01/08	Hemel Hempstead UK Friendlies	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
28/07	Real Bedford UK Friendlies	2-1	4-4	5	6	D
21/07	Berkhamsted Club Friendly List	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
14/07	Bedfont Sports UK Friendlies	2-0	4-1	5	1	W
25/04	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Canvey Island England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
11/04	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L

Lewes

LWLDLWWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	0	D
08/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
25/07	Dorking Wanderers UK Friendlies	0-0	1-2	3	1	L
18/07	Hastings Utd UK Friendlies	1-0	2-1	6	0	W
11/07	Rusthall FC Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
18/04	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-3	7	0	L
06/04	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	3-0	1	0	W
03/04	Potters Bar Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	1-2	5	0	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St Albans vs Lewes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St Albans win (60%). Probabilities: St Albans 60%, draw 22%, Lewes 18%.

How many goals are expected in St Albans vs Lewes?

The model expects 3.04 goals (St Albans 2.03 · Lewes 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St Albans vs Lewes?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.