Football · England Northern Premier League · 11/08, 20:45
Prediction: Alfreton Town vs Gainsborough
Team pages: Alfreton Town · Gainsborough
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Alfreton Town1.29
Gainsborough1.29
1X2
Alfreton Town
Draw
Gainsborough
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Alfreton Town
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Gainsborough
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Alfreton Town
3–2–1
Gainsborough
(6 last)
- Gainsborough1-2Alfreton Town
- Gainsborough2-1Alfreton Town
- Alfreton Town4-1Gainsborough
- Gainsborough0-2Alfreton Town
- Alfreton Town1-1Gainsborough
- Gainsborough0-0Alfreton Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Alfreton Town 1429 · Gainsborough 1499
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Gainsborough | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 29% | 35% |
| Market | 37% | 26% | 37% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gainsborough (rating 1429 vs 1499).
- H2H favours Alfreton Town: 3-2-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alfreton Town | Gainsborough | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 2.2 | 1.6 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.9 | 0.6 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 22/56/22% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 3.5 | 2.3 / 6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 0.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Alfreton Town 3–2–1 Gainsborough
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/25 England FA Trophy | Gainsborough | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Alfreton Town |
| 27/01/18 England National League North | Gainsborough | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Alfreton Town |
| 09/09/17 England National League North | Alfreton Town | 4-1 HT 4-0 | Gainsborough |
| 04/02/17 England National League North | Gainsborough | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Alfreton Town |
| 30/11/16 England FA Trophy | Alfreton Town | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Gainsborough |
| 26/11/16 England FA Trophy | Gainsborough | 0-0 | Alfreton Town |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashton Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Warrington Rylands | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Cleethorpes Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Gainsborough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Avro FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Warrington Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Whitby | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Curzon Ashton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ilkeston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Emley AFC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bury | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Hyde Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Guiseley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Leek Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Quorn | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Alfreton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Bamber Bridge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Workington | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Lancaster City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alfreton Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Mansfield UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Rotherham UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Derby UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Boston Utd UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Burton Albion UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | Notts County UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Curzon Ashton England National League North |
2-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 18/04 | Marine England National League North |
0-1 | 3-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | Buxton England National League North |
2-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 6 | D |
Gainsborough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Bradford P A UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 28/07 | Stocksbridge PS Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Doncaster Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Halifax UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Basford Utd Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/07 | Lincoln Utd Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Frickley Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League |
0-3 | 1-3 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-2 | 11 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alfreton Town vs Gainsborough?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Alfreton Town win (36%). Probabilities: Alfreton Town 36%, draw 27%, Gainsborough 36%.
How many goals are expected in Alfreton Town vs Gainsborough?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Alfreton Town 1.29 · Gainsborough 1.29), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Alfreton Town vs Gainsborough?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.