Football · England Northern Premier League · 11/08, 20:45
Prediction: Whitby vs Guiseley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.5Total
Whitby1.28
Guiseley1.22
1X2
Whitby
Draw
Guiseley
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Whitby
2-4-4 (W-D-L)
Guiseley
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Whitby
1–1–4
Guiseley
(6 last)
- Guiseley1-0Whitby
- Whitby1-1Guiseley
- Guiseley3-1Whitby
- Whitby1-2Guiseley
- Whitby1-2Guiseley
- Guiseley1-3Whitby
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Whitby 1483 · Guiseley 1524
| Whitby | Draw | Guiseley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 30% | 34% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1483 vs 1524).
- H2H favours Guiseley: 4-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Whitby | Guiseley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 29/29/43% | 63/13/25% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1 / 3 | 3.7 / 5.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.3 | 2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Whitby 1–1–4 Guiseley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/26 England Northern Premier League | Guiseley | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Whitby |
| 08/11/25 England Northern Premier League | Whitby | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Guiseley |
| 07/12/24 England Northern Premier League | Guiseley | 3-1 HT 2-1 | Whitby |
| 10/09/24 England Northern Premier League | Whitby | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Guiseley |
| 19/03/24 England Northern Premier League | Whitby | 1-2 | Guiseley |
| 15/08/23 England Northern Premier League | Guiseley | 1-3 HT 0-2 | Whitby |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashton Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Warrington Rylands | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Cleethorpes Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Gainsborough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Avro FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Warrington Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Whitby | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Curzon Ashton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ilkeston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Emley AFC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bury | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Hyde Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Guiseley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Leek Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Quorn | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Alfreton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Bamber Bridge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Workington | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Lancaster City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Whitby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Leek Town England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Guisborough Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Northallerton Town Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | West Auckland Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Bridlington Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Marske United Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Leek Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 06/04 | Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
Guiseley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Warrington Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Pontefract Collieries UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 24/07 | Blackburn U23 Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Garforth Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Stocksbridge PS UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 14/07 | Tadcaster Albion Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Harrogate Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-5 | – | – | L |
| 06/04 | Gainsborough England Northern Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Whitby vs Guiseley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Whitby win (38%). Probabilities: Whitby 38%, draw 28%, Guiseley 35%.
How many goals are expected in Whitby vs Guiseley?
The model expects 2.5 goals (Whitby 1.28 · Guiseley 1.22), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Whitby vs Guiseley?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.