Football · England Northern Premier League · 11/08, 20:45

Prediction: Lancaster City vs Warrington Rylands

Team pages: Lancaster City · Warrington Rylands

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.83Total

Lancaster City1.39

Warrington Rylands1.44

1X2

35% 27% 38%

Lancaster City Draw Warrington Rylands

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Lancaster City 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDWDWWLDWL

Warrington Rylands 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWLWWW

Head-to-head

Lancaster City 3–2–1 Warrington Rylands (6 last)

Warrington Rylands2-0Lancaster City
Lancaster City2-0Warrington Rylands
Warrington Rylands0-2Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-0Warrington Rylands
Warrington Rylands1-2Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-0Warrington Rylands

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lancaster City 1542 · Warrington Rylands 1560

	Lancaster City	Draw	Warrington Rylands
Our model	35%	27%	38%
Market	35%	27%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.83 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lancaster City: 3-2-1.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lancaster City	Warrington Rylands
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	0/71/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5	0.8 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1 / 0	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.30

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.77

Under 2.252.02

Diff.: 1.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:06 +3’	2.55	3.30	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Lancaster City 3–2–1 Warrington Rylands

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
13/12/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Rylands	2-0 HT 1-0	Lancaster City
09/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	2-0 HT 2-0	Warrington Rylands
19/04/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Rylands	0-2 HT 0-1	Lancaster City
20/08/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-0	Warrington Rylands
13/04/24 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Rylands	1-2	Lancaster City
28/10/23 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-0	Warrington Rylands

Standings · England Northern Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ashton Utd	1	1	0	0	4	1	3
2	Warrington Rylands	1	1	0	0	3	0	3
3	Cleethorpes Town	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Gainsborough	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
5	Avro FC	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Warrington Town	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
5	Whitby	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
8	Curzon Ashton	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
8	Ilkeston	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
10	Emley AFC	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Bury	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Hyde Utd	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
10	Redcar Athletic	1	0	1	0	0	0	1
14	Guiseley	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Leek Town	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Quorn	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
17	Alfreton Town	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
17	Stockton Town	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
19	Bamber Bridge	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
19	Workington	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
21	Lancaster City	1	0	0	1	1	4	0
22	FC United of Manchester	1	0	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lancaster City	Warrington Rylands
Stocksbridge PS	2-0 W	3-2 W
Stockton Town	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Lancaster City (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Lancaster City

WDWDWWLDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
25/07	Fulwood Amateurs FC Club Friendly List	2-1	7-2	–	–	W
21/07	Preston U21 UK Friendlies	1-0	2-2	5	0	D
18/07	Charnock Richard Club Friendly List	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
14/07	Garstang FC Club Friendly List	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
25/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
06/04	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
03/04	Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W

Warrington Rylands

WLWDLWLWWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
01/08	AFC Fylde UK Friendlies	0-0	2-0	1	1	W
24/07	Silsden Club Friendly List	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
18/07	Trafford Club Friendly List	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
11/07	Rhyl Club Friendly List	2-2	3-2	–	–	W
04/07	Hebburn Town UK Friendlies	0-3	0-5	2	0	L
04/05	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
28/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-2	3-2	3	2	W
25/04	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lancaster City vs Warrington Rylands?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Warrington Rylands win (38%). Probabilities: Lancaster City 35%, draw 27%, Warrington Rylands 38%.

How many goals are expected in Lancaster City vs Warrington Rylands?

The model expects 2.83 goals (Lancaster City 1.39 · Warrington Rylands 1.44), with a 58% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Lancaster City vs Warrington Rylands?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.