Football · England Northern Premier League · 11/08, 20:45
Prediction: Stockton Town vs Ashton Utd
Team pages: Stockton Town · Ashton Utd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.75Total
Stockton Town1.6
Ashton Utd1.16
1X2
Stockton Town
Draw
Ashton Utd
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Stockton Town
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Ashton Utd
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stockton Town
2–2
Ashton Utd
(4 last)
- Ashton Utd1-2Stockton Town
- Stockton Town1-2Ashton Utd
- Ashton Utd0-1Stockton Town
- Stockton Town1-2Ashton Utd
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stockton Town 1446 · Ashton Utd 1531
| Stockton Town | Draw | Ashton Utd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 46% | 27% | 26% |
| Market | 47% | 26% | 27% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ashton Utd (rating 1446 vs 1531).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stockton Town | Ashton Utd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 2 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 1 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/43/57% | 0/63/38% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 3.8 | 2.8 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.5 / 0.3 | 2.7 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stockton Town 2–0–2 Ashton Utd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 England Northern Premier League | Ashton Utd | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Stockton Town |
| 18/10/25 England Northern Premier League | Stockton Town | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Ashton Utd |
| 15/03/25 England Northern Premier League | Ashton Utd | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Stockton Town |
| 09/11/24 England Northern Premier League | Stockton Town | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Ashton Utd |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashton Utd | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 |
| 2 | Warrington Rylands | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Cleethorpes Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Gainsborough | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Avro FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Warrington Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Whitby | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 8 | Curzon Ashton | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ilkeston | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 10 | Emley AFC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Bury | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Hyde Utd | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 14 | Guiseley | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Leek Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 14 | Quorn | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 17 | Alfreton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Stockton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 19 | Bamber Bridge | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 19 | Workington | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 21 | Lancaster City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Stockton Town | Ashton Utd |
|---|---|---|
| Hednesford | 0-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Lancaster City | 1-1 D | 4-1 W |
| Rushall Olympic | 2-4 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Ashton Utd (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stockton Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Ilkeston England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | Blyth Spartans Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Dunston UTS Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Guisborough Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/04 | Hednesford England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Lancaster City England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/04 | Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
Ashton Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Lancaster City England Northern Premier League |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Stalybridge UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Runcorn Linnets Club Friendly List |
2-2 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Euxton Villa Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 10/07 | Buxton UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Hednesford England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Guiseley England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 11/04 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 06/04 | Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 03/04 | Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 2-1 | 11 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stockton Town vs Ashton Utd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stockton Town win (47%). Probabilities: Stockton Town 47%, draw 27%, Ashton Utd 27%.
How many goals are expected in Stockton Town vs Ashton Utd?
The model expects 2.75 goals (Stockton Town 1.6 · Ashton Utd 1.16), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stockton Town vs Ashton Utd?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.