Football · Qatar Stars League · 22/08, 18:30

Prediction: Al Sadd vs Al-Ahli Doha

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Al Sadd2.49

Al-Ahli Doha1.39

1X2

61% 20% 19%

Al Sadd Draw Al-Ahli Doha

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

Al Sadd 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWLWDW

Al-Ahli Doha 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLDWDWWLWL

Head-to-head

Al Sadd 4–2–0 Al-Ahli Doha (6 last)

Al Sadd2-0Al-Ahli Doha
Al Sadd2-2Al-Ahli Doha
Al-Ahli Doha0-2Al Sadd
Al Sadd3-0Al-Ahli Doha
Al Sadd5-0Al-Ahli Doha
Al-Ahli Doha2-2Al Sadd

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al Sadd (rating 1586 vs 1476).
H2H favours Al Sadd: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Sadd	Al-Ahli Doha
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.9	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.3	1.2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.87

Under 3.51.92

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 07:19

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.31 → 1.37▲	Pinn 1.37
X	5.63 → 5.31▼	Pinn 5.31
2	7.40 → 6.41▼	Pinn 6.41

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:29 +1’	1.31	5.63	7.40
07:17 +2’	1.37▲	5.31▼	6.41▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Sadd 4–2–0 Al-Ahli Doha

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/01/26 Qatar Stars League	Al Sadd	2-0 HT 0-0	Al-Ahli Doha
16/11/25 Qatar Stars Cup	Al Sadd	2-2 HT 1-2	Al-Ahli Doha
21/08/25 Qatar Stars League	Al-Ahli Doha	0-2 HT 0-0	Al Sadd
22/04/25 Qatar Cup	Al Sadd	3-0 HT 1-0	Al-Ahli Doha
18/04/25 Qatar Stars League	Al Sadd	5-0 HT 3-0	Al-Ahli Doha
07/12/24 Qatar Stars League	Al-Ahli Doha	2-2 HT 1-1	Al Sadd

Standings · Qatar Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al-Ahli Doha	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Arabi Doha	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Duhail	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Gharafa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Rayyan SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Sadd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Shahaniya SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Wakrah SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al Sailiya SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Al-Shamal SC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lusail	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Qatar SC Doha	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Sadd	Al-Ahli Doha
Al Gharafa	1-4 L	4-1 W
Al Duhail	4-1 W	2-1 W
Al Sailiya SC	3-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Al Sadd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Al Sadd

WDDWWWLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	MC Alger World Club Friendlies	0-0	2-0	3	4	W
06/08	Aris Limassol World Club Friendlies	0-1	1-1	10	0	D
30/07	Trabzonspor World Club Friendlies	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
09/05	Al Gharafa Qatar Emir Cup	0-2	1-4	11	2	L
05/05	Al Duhail Qatar Emir Cup	2-0	4-1	2	7	W
01/05	Al-Shamal SC Qatar Emir Cup	4-1	6-4	2	6	W
27/04	Al-Shamal SC Qatar Stars League	2-0	3-2	4	7	W
16/04	Vissel Kobe AFC Champions League Elite	1-1	3-3	7	0	D
13/04	Al Hilal Riyadh AFC Champions League Elite	1-1	3-3	12	5	D
08/04	Al Sailiya SC Qatar Stars League	1-0	3-1	10	2	W

Al-Ahli Doha

LLDWDWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Al Shabab Riyadh Club Friendly List	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
27/04	Umm Salal Qatar Stars League	1-0	3-1	3	8	W
22/04	Al-Nassr Riyadh AFC Champions League Two	1-3	1-5	4	4	L
19/04	Al Hussein SC AFC Champions League Two	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
08/04	Al Duhail Qatar Stars League	1-0	2-1	1	5	W
03/04	Al Sailiya SC Qatar Stars League	2-0	2-2	4	1	D
18/03	Al Gharafa Qatar Stars League	0-1	4-1	4	4	W
13/03	Al-Arabi Doha Qatar Stars League	0-1	1-1	8	4	D
27/02	Al-Shahaniya SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	1-2	4	5	L
22/02	Al-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League	1-0	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Sadd vs Al-Ahli Doha?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Al Sadd win (61%). Probabilities: Al Sadd 61%, draw 20%, Al-Ahli Doha 19%.

How many goals are expected in Al Sadd vs Al-Ahli Doha?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Al Sadd 2.49 · Al-Ahli Doha 1.39), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Sadd vs Al-Ahli Doha?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.