Football · Qatar Stars League · 27/08, 16:15

Prediction: Al Gharafa vs Al-Shamal SC

Team pages: Al Gharafa · Al-Shamal SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Al Gharafa1.38

Al-Shamal SC1.5

1X2

34% 26% 40%

Al Gharafa Draw Al-Shamal SC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Al Gharafa 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLLDDW

Al-Shamal SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWWLWLWLD

Head-to-head

Al Gharafa 1–3–2 Al-Shamal SC (6 last)

Al Gharafa0-1Al-Shamal SC
Al Gharafa0-1Al-Shamal SC
Al-Shamal SC0-0Al Gharafa
Al-Shamal SC1-2Al Gharafa
Al Gharafa1-1Al-Shamal SC
Al Gharafa1-1Al-Shamal SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Al Gharafa 1467 · Al-Shamal SC 1521

	Al Gharafa	Draw	Al-Shamal SC
Our model	34%	27%	39%
Market	35%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Al-Shamal SC (rating 1467 vs 1521).
H2H favours Al-Shamal SC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Al Gharafa	Al-Shamal SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/70/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.7	2.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	5.8 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 05:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.70
2	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.41 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 7.7%

Time*	1	X	2
05:03 +3’	2.60	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:05	2.55	3.70	2.41

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Al Gharafa 1–3–2 Al-Shamal SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 Qatar Stars League	Al Gharafa	0-1 HT 0-0	Al-Shamal SC
27/10/25 Qatar Stars Cup	Al Gharafa	0-1 HT 0-0	Al-Shamal SC
20/09/25 Qatar Stars League	Al-Shamal SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Al Gharafa
08/02/25 Qatar Stars League	Al-Shamal SC	1-2 HT 0-0	Al Gharafa
12/10/24 Qatar Stars Cup	Al Gharafa	1-1 HT 0-1	Al-Shamal SC
13/09/24 Qatar Stars League	Al Gharafa	1-1 HT 1-1	Al-Shamal SC

Standings · Qatar Stars League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Al Sadd	1	1	0	0	3	1	3
2	Al Duhail	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
3	Al Gharafa	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	Al-Rayyan SC	1	1	0	0	1	0	3
5	Al-Arabi Doha	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Al-Wakrah SC	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Al-Shamal SC	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
5	Qatar SC Doha	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
9	Al-Shahaniya SC	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
10	Lusail	1	0	0	1	0	1	0
11	Al-Ahli Doha	1	0	0	1	1	3	0
12	Al Sailiya SC	1	0	0	1	0	2	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Al Gharafa	Al-Shamal SC
Al-Shahaniya SC	2-1 W	0-2 L
Al-Wakrah SC	3-3 D	1-0 W
Al Duhail	2-3 L	1-3 L
Qatar SC Doha	0-2 L	3-0 W
Al Sailiya SC	0-1 L	0-0 D
Al Sadd	1-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Al-Shamal SC (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Al Gharafa

LLLWLLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Al-Shahaniya SC Qatar Stars League	1-1	2-1	5	4	W
27/04	Al-Shahaniya SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	1-1	3	5	D
08/04	Al-Wakrah SC Qatar Stars League	1-1	3-3	7	3	D
04/04	Al Duhail Qatar Stars League	2-2	2-3	1	5	L
18/03	Al-Ahli Doha Qatar Stars League	1-0	1-4	3	4	L
12/03	Qatar SC Doha Qatar Stars League	0-1	0-2	4	10	L
26/02	Al-Rayyan SC Qatar Stars League	0-1	3-2	7	6	W
22/02	Al-Shamal SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
05/02	Al Sailiya SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	0-1	10	4	L
31/01	Al Sadd Qatar Stars League	0-0	1-3	1	5	L

Al-Shamal SC

DWWWLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/08	Al-Arabi Doha Qatar Stars League	0-0	2-2	3	7	D
27/04	Al Sadd Qatar Stars League	0-2	2-3	5	7	L
13/04	Qatar SC Doha Qatar Stars League	0-2	3-0	10	9	W
08/04	Al-Shahaniya SC Qatar Stars League	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
04/04	Umm Salal Qatar Stars League	2-0	3-2	5	3	W
17/03	Al Duhail Qatar Stars League	1-0	1-3	6	5	L
12/03	Al-Wakrah SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/02	Al Gharafa Qatar Stars League	0-0	1-0	3	5	W
05/02	Al-Arabi Doha Qatar Stars League	1-0	2-1	3	9	W
30/01	Al Sailiya SC Qatar Stars League	0-0	0-0	11	8	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Al Gharafa vs Al-Shamal SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Al-Shamal SC win (40%). Probabilities: Al Gharafa 34%, draw 26%, Al-Shamal SC 40%.

How many goals are expected in Al Gharafa vs Al-Shamal SC?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Al Gharafa 1.38 · Al-Shamal SC 1.5), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Al Gharafa vs Al-Shamal SC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.