Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 03/10, 16:00
Prediction: FC Cologne (W) vs Freiburg (W)
Team pages: FC Cologne (W) · Freiburg (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
FC Cologne (W)1.91
Freiburg (W)1.32
1X2
FC Cologne (W)
Draw
Freiburg (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
FC Cologne (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Freiburg (W)
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Cologne (W)
2–1–3
Freiburg (W)
(6 last)
- FC Cologne (W)1-0Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)1-0FC Cologne (W)
- Freiburg (W)2-0FC Cologne (W)
- FC Cologne (W)0-2Freiburg (W)
- FC Cologne (W)2-0Freiburg (W)
- Freiburg (W)3-3FC Cologne (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Cologne (W) 1566 · Freiburg (W) 1528
| FC Cologne (W) | Draw | Freiburg (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 50% | 24% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 26% | 25% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Freiburg (W): 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Cologne (W) | Freiburg (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.1 / 1.6 | 1.7 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.3 / 0.9 | 0.7 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 5.4 | 2.3 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0 | 4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cologne (W) 2–1–3 Freiburg (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/01/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | FC Cologne (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 12/09/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | FC Cologne (W) |
| 15/02/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | FC Cologne (W) |
| 28/09/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | FC Cologne (W) | 0-2 HT 0-1 | Freiburg (W) |
| 21/04/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | FC Cologne (W) | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Freiburg (W) |
| 20/11/23 Germany Bundesliga Women | Freiburg (W) | 3-3 HT 2-1 | FC Cologne (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Wolfsburg (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Cologne (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 8 | Freiburg (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 10 | RB Leipzig (W) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 12 | Union Berlin (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 13 | Nurnberg (W) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | FC Cologne (W) | Freiburg (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Bayern Munich (W) | 2-5 L | 1-4 L |
| Union Berlin (W) | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Mainz (W) | 4-0 W | 3-0 W |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 1-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Carl Zeiss Jena (W) | 3-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Hamburger SV (W) | 2-1 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 1 L | 3 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: FC Cologne (W) (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Cologne (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-3 | 2-5 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 12/09 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 28/08 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 22/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Werder Bremen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 27/04 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-4 | 2-6 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/03 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 1 | L |
Freiburg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 13/09 | Mainz (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 10 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 17/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 09/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 2-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Carl Zeiss Jena (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
3-0 | 5-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-4 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 29/03 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Cologne (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cologne (W) win (50%). Probabilities: FC Cologne (W) 50%, draw 25%, Freiburg (W) 25%.
How many goals are expected in FC Cologne (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
The model expects 3.23 goals (FC Cologne (W) 1.91 · Freiburg (W) 1.32), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Cologne (W) vs Freiburg (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.