Football · Germany Bundesliga Women · 04/10, 18:30
Prediction: Nurnberg (W) vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Team pages: Nurnberg (W) · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.54Total
Nurnberg (W)1.28
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)2.26
1X2
Nurnberg (W)
Draw
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-2 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Nurnberg (W)
1-2-7 (W-D-L)
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Nurnberg (W)
0–2–4
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
(6 last)
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)0-0Nurnberg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)0-3TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)1-1Nurnberg (W)
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)3-1Nurnberg (W)
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)2-0Nurnberg (W)
- Nurnberg (W)0-3TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Nurnberg (W) 1445 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 1553
| Nurnberg (W) | Draw | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 21% | 59% |
| Market | 20% | 22% | 58% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) (rating 1445 vs 1553).
- H2H favours TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W): 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Nurnberg (W) | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.9 | 1.7 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 1.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/20/40% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 1.6 / 3.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Nurnberg (W) 0–2–4 TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 Women’s Friendly | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 08/02/26 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 0-3 HT 0-1 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) |
| 24/09/25 Germany Bundesliga Women | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 24/08/25 Women’s Friendly | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 3-1 HT 2-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 09/03/24 Germany Bundesliga Women | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Nurnberg (W) |
| 13/10/23 Germany Bundesliga Women | Nurnberg (W) | 0-3 HT 0-2 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) |
Standings · Germany Bundesliga Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern Munich (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 15 |
| 2 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Wolfsburg (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 12 |
| 4 | Werder Bremen (W) | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 5 | FC Cologne (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 9 |
| 6 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 7 | 9 |
| 7 | VfB Stuttgart (W) | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| 8 | Freiburg (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 7 |
| 9 | Hamburger SV (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
| 10 | RB Leipzig (W) | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 4 |
| 11 | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 |
| 12 | Union Berlin (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 3 |
| 13 | Nurnberg (W) | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 19 | 2 |
| 14 | Mainz (W) | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Nurnberg (W) | TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) |
|---|---|---|
| RB Leipzig (W) | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| VfB Stuttgart (W) | 3-3 D | 1-2 L |
| Eintracht Frankfurt (W) | 1-1 D | 2-4 L |
| Wolfsburg (W) | 2-8 L | 2-1 W |
| Bayern Munich (W) | 0-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 2 D 3 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Nurnberg (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-3 | 1-5 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 12/09 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 06/09 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 30/08 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 22/08 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 2-8 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 08/05 | SGS Essen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 7 | W |
| 04/05 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-2 | 1-4 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/04 | Hamburger SV (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 28/03 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 3 | L |
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09 | Wolfsburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/09 | Eintracht Frankfurt (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-1 | 2-4 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 04/09 | Bayer Leverkusen (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 28/08 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 23/08 | VfB Stuttgart (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 17/05 | RB Leipzig (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | Union Berlin (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 06/05 | Bayern Munich (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 27/04 | FC Cologne (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
4-1 | 6-2 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 29/03 | Freiburg (W) Germany Bundesliga Women |
2-1 | 2-1 | 9 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Nurnberg (W) vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) win (58%). Probabilities: Nurnberg (W) 20%, draw 22%, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 58%.
How many goals are expected in Nurnberg (W) vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)?
The model expects 3.54 goals (Nurnberg (W) 1.28 · TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W) 2.26), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Nurnberg (W) vs TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (W)?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.