Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 16/09, 20:00

Prediction: Progres Niedercorn vs Union Luxembourg

Team pages: Progres Niedercorn · Union Luxembourg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Progres Niedercorn1.77

Union Luxembourg1.68

1X2

40% 25% 36%

Progres Niedercorn Draw Union Luxembourg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Progres Niedercorn 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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Union Luxembourg 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Progres Niedercorn 2–3–1 Union Luxembourg (6 last)

Union Luxembourg2-2Progres Niedercorn
Progres Niedercorn1-3Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg1-3Progres Niedercorn
Progres Niedercorn1-1Union Luxembourg
Progres Niedercorn2-1Union Luxembourg
Union Luxembourg3-3Progres Niedercorn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Progres Niedercorn 1489 · Union Luxembourg 1579

	Progres Niedercorn	Draw	Union Luxembourg
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	40%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Union Luxembourg (rating 1489 vs 1579).
H2H favours Progres Niedercorn: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 10.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Progres Niedercorn	Union Luxembourg
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	1.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/30/10%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 5	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0.6	5.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Pinn 2.29
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Pinn 2.91 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:31 +37’	2.25	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
14:42 +27’	2.29	3.21	2.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Progres Niedercorn 2–3–1 Union Luxembourg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	2-2 HT 1-1	Progres Niedercorn
25/10/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Progres Niedercorn	1-3 HT 0-1	Union Luxembourg
29/03/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	1-3 HT 0-2	Progres Niedercorn
30/10/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Progres Niedercorn	1-1 HT 0-0	Union Luxembourg
14/04/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Progres Niedercorn	2-1 HT 1-0	Union Luxembourg
22/10/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Union Luxembourg	3-3 HT 1-1	Progres Niedercorn

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	6	6	0	0	13	1	18
2	FC 03 Differdange	7	6	0	1	16	5	18
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	6	6	0	0	14	7	18
4	Union Luxembourg	7	5	1	1	21	8	16
5	Progres Niedercorn	7	5	0	2	13	5	15
6	UN Kaerjeng	7	4	0	3	19	13	12
7	US Hostert	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
8	Residence Walferdange	6	3	0	3	11	9	9
9	Bissen	6	3	0	3	8	9	9
10	F91 Dudelange	7	2	1	4	6	11	7
11	Jeunesse Esch	7	2	0	5	13	16	6
12	Rumelange	6	2	0	4	8	15	6
13	Wiltz	7	1	1	5	12	18	4
14	Victoria Rosport	7	1	1	5	10	19	4
15	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	7	1	1	5	5	14	4
16	Swift Hesperange	6	0	0	6	2	24	-12

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Progres Niedercorn	Union Luxembourg
Jeunesse Esch	2-1 W	5-1 W
F91 Dudelange	2-4 L	3-1 W
FC 03 Differdange	2-3 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Union Luxembourg (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Progres Niedercorn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
06/09	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
30/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
16/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	4-0	3	10	W
09/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-1	8	8	W
23/05	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-4	1	3	L
17/05	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	1-2	10	1	L
08/05	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	2-3	5	9	L

Union Luxembourg

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Jeunesse Esch Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	5-1	7	6	W
06/09	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	3-1	4	7	W
30/08	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-2	4	3	D
23/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
16/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	5-0	–	–	W
09/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
02/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	4-1	5-1	6	3	W
23/05	FC Rodange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	6-1	4	4	W
17/05	US Hostert Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
10/05	FC Mamer 32 Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	2-3	7	10	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Progres Niedercorn vs Union Luxembourg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Progres Niedercorn win (40%). Probabilities: Progres Niedercorn 40%, draw 25%, Union Luxembourg 36%.

How many goals are expected in Progres Niedercorn vs Union Luxembourg?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Progres Niedercorn 1.77 · Union Luxembourg 1.68), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Progres Niedercorn vs Union Luxembourg?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.