Football · Luxembourg Division Nationale · 16/09, 20:00

Prediction: US Hostert vs Jeunesse Esch

Team pages: US Hostert · Jeunesse Esch

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.54Total

US Hostert2.04

Jeunesse Esch1.5

1X2

49% 24% 27%

US Hostert Draw Jeunesse Esch

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

US Hostert 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLWD

Jeunesse Esch 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLLLWWL

Head-to-head

US Hostert 2–1–3 Jeunesse Esch (6 last)

Jeunesse Esch2-3US Hostert
US Hostert1-3Jeunesse Esch
Jeunesse Esch0-3US Hostert
US Hostert0-0Jeunesse Esch
Jeunesse Esch5-0US Hostert
US Hostert0-1Jeunesse Esch

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · US Hostert 1522 · Jeunesse Esch 1502

	US Hostert	Draw	Jeunesse Esch
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.54 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Jeunesse Esch: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	US Hostert	Jeunesse Esch
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.3	1.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.1	0.8 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.3	4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +2’	1.83	3.70	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · US Hostert 2–1–3 Jeunesse Esch

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Jeunesse Esch	2-3 HT 1-0	US Hostert
28/09/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	1-3 HT 0-2	Jeunesse Esch
08/03/25 Luxembourg Division Nationale	Jeunesse Esch	0-3 HT 0-1	US Hostert
14/09/24 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	0-0 HT 0-0	Jeunesse Esch
16/07/23 Europe Friendlies	Jeunesse Esch	5-0 HT 3-0	US Hostert
19/03/23 Luxembourg Division Nationale	US Hostert	0-1 HT 0-1	Jeunesse Esch

Standings · Luxembourg Division Nationale

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	UNA Strassen	6	6	0	0	13	1	18
2	FC 03 Differdange	7	6	0	1	16	5	18
3	US Mondorf-Les-Bains	6	6	0	0	14	7	18
4	Union Luxembourg	7	5	1	1	21	8	16
5	Progres Niedercorn	7	5	0	2	13	5	15
6	UN Kaerjeng	7	4	0	3	19	13	12
7	US Hostert	7	3	1	3	13	10	10
8	Residence Walferdange	6	3	0	3	11	9	9
9	Bissen	6	3	0	3	8	9	9
10	F91 Dudelange	7	2	1	4	6	11	7
11	Jeunesse Esch	7	2	0	5	13	16	6
12	Rumelange	6	2	0	4	8	15	6
13	Wiltz	7	1	1	5	12	18	4
14	Victoria Rosport	7	1	1	5	10	19	4
15	FC Etzella Ettelbruck	7	1	1	5	5	14	4
16	Swift Hesperange	6	0	0	6	2	24	-12

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	US Hostert	Jeunesse Esch
UN Kaerjeng	2-4 L	2-0 W
Union Luxembourg	0-1 L	1-5 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

US Hostert

WLWLLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	F91 Dudelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-0	1	8	D
05/09	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-0	2-0	1	8	W
30/08	FC 03 Differdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-2	0	2	L
23/08	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
16/08	FC Etzella Ettelbruck Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-0	5-1	4	4	W
09/08	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-2	2-4	3	7	L
02/08	Residence Walferdange Luxembourg Division Nationale	2-1	2-3	7	7	L
23/05	Victoria Rosport Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
17/05	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	Swift Hesperange Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	1-0	6	5	W

Jeunesse Esch

LWWLLLLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Union Luxembourg Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-3	1-5	2	6	L
06/09	Wiltz Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	5-1	5	8	W
30/08	Rumelange Luxembourg Division Nationale	3-1	5-2	4	3	W
23/08	US Mondorf-Les-Bains Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
16/08	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-0	0-1	0	2	L
09/08	Bissen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
01/08	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	1-2	3	8	L
23/05	UN Kaerjeng Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/05	Progres Niedercorn Luxembourg Division Nationale	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
10/05	UNA Strassen Luxembourg Division Nationale	0-2	0-3	1	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in US Hostert vs Jeunesse Esch?

According to our model, the most likely result is a US Hostert win (49%). Probabilities: US Hostert 49%, draw 24%, Jeunesse Esch 27%.

How many goals are expected in US Hostert vs Jeunesse Esch?

The model expects 3.54 goals (US Hostert 2.04 · Jeunesse Esch 1.5), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in US Hostert vs Jeunesse Esch?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.