Football · Thailand Premier League · 08/11, 12:00
Prediction: BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC
Team pages: BG Pathum United · Rayong FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.77Total
BG Pathum United1.91
Rayong FC0.86
1X2
BG Pathum United
Draw
Rayong FC
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
2-0 11%
Recent form · 10 last
BG Pathum United
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Rayong FC
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
BG Pathum United
2–3–1
Rayong FC
(6 last)
- Rayong FC1-1BG Pathum United
- BG Pathum United1-1Rayong FC
- Rayong FC1-1BG Pathum United
- BG Pathum United0-1Rayong FC
- Rayong FC0-1BG Pathum United
- BG Pathum United2-1Rayong FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · BG Pathum United 1529 · Rayong FC 1480
| BG Pathum United | Draw | Rayong FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 61% | 24% | 15% |
| Market | 62% | 22% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours BG Pathum United (rating 1529 vs 1480).
- H2H favours BG Pathum United: 2-3-1.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| BG Pathum United | Rayong FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 0.9 | 1.4 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1.2 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/50/10% | 30/20/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 6.1 | 1.8 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.3 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · BG Pathum United 2–3–1 Rayong FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 Thailand Premier League | Rayong FC | 1-1 HT 0-1 | BG Pathum United |
| 09/11/25 Thailand Premier League | BG Pathum United | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Rayong FC |
| 12/01/25 Thailand Premier League | Rayong FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | BG Pathum United |
| 16/08/24 Thailand Premier League | BG Pathum United | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Rayong FC |
| 25/02/21 Thailand Premier League | Rayong FC | 0-1 HT 0-1 | BG Pathum United |
| 03/10/20 Thailand Premier League | BG Pathum United | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Rayong FC |
Standings · Thailand Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Port FC | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 7 | 15 |
| 2 | Ratchaburi FC | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Ayutthaya United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 7 | 13 |
| 4 | Prachuap FC | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | Buriram United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Bangkok United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Uthai Thani FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 13 | 11 | 10 |
| 8 | Lamphun Warrior FC | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 12 | 10 | 10 |
| 9 | Sisaket United | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 10 |
| 10 | BG Pathum United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 9 |
| 11 | Sukhothai FC | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 16 | 9 |
| 12 | Rayong FC | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 15 | 8 |
| 13 | Pattani FC | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 12 | 7 |
| 14 | Chonburi | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 6 |
| 15 | Chiangrai Utd | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 4 |
| 16 | Rasi Salai United | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 21 | 1 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | BG Pathum United | Rayong FC |
|---|---|---|
| Chonburi | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Bangkok United | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| Prachuap FC | 3-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 1 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Rayong FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
BG Pathum United
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/11 | Chonburi Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 8 | L |
| 24/10 | Chiangrai Utd Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 18/10 | Sisaket United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 10/10 | Ayutthaya United Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 9 | D |
| 20/09 | Bangkok United Thailand Premier League |
2-2 | 2-3 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 12/09 | Rasi Salai United Thailand Premier League |
2-2 | 3-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 04/09 | Pattani FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 12 | 4 | W |
| 01/05 | Muang Thong United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 25/04 | Nakhon Ratchasima Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 15 | 2 | W |
Rayong FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/11 | Lamphun Warrior FC Thailand Premier League |
0-3 | 0-4 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 24/10 | Port FC Thailand Premier League |
0-3 | 1-4 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 17/10 | Uthai Thani FC Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 10/10 | Buriram United Thailand Premier League |
1-1 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 20/09 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 13/09 | Chonburi Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 3-2 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 05/09 | Prachuap FC Thailand Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Bangkok United Thailand Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 6 | D |
| 03/05 | Ratchaburi FC Thailand Premier League |
0-3 | 1-6 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 29/04 | Buriram United Thailand Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a BG Pathum United win (61%). Probabilities: BG Pathum United 61%, draw 23%, Rayong FC 16%.
How many goals are expected in BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC?
The model expects 2.77 goals (BG Pathum United 1.91 · Rayong FC 0.86), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in BG Pathum United vs Rayong FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.