Football · Croatia 2.NL · 03/10, 15:30

Prediction: NK Trnje vs NK Uljanik

Team pages: NK Trnje · NK Uljanik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

NK Trnje1.78

NK Uljanik1.72

1X2

38% 25% 36%

NK Trnje Draw NK Uljanik

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Trnje 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWWWDLL

NK Uljanik 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWWDLD

Head-to-head

NK Trnje 1–3 NK Uljanik (4 last)

NK Uljanik1-0NK Trnje
NK Trnje1-4NK Uljanik
NK Uljanik2-0NK Trnje
NK Trnje3-2NK Uljanik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Trnje 1523 · NK Uljanik 1508

	NK Trnje	Draw	NK Uljanik
Our model	39%	24%	37%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Uljanik: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Trnje	NK Uljanik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.1	2.5 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	11/44/44%	67/11/22%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	1 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:08 +21’	2.35	3.40	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Trnje 1–0–3 NK Uljanik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/02/26 Croatia 2.NL	NK Uljanik	1-0 HT 1-0	NK Trnje
30/08/25 Croatia 2.NL	NK Trnje	1-4 HT 1-2	NK Uljanik
05/04/25 Croatia 2.NL	NK Uljanik	2-0	NK Trnje
05/10/24 Croatia 2.NL	NK Trnje	3-2 HT 0-0	NK Uljanik

Standings · Croatia 2.NL

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Bjelovar	6	4	1	1	16	9	13
2	NK Uskok	6	4	0	2	14	7	12
3	NK Uljanik	6	3	2	1	14	13	11
4	NK Jarun	6	2	4	0	14	10	10
5	NK Trnje	6	3	1	2	10	7	10
6	NK Krizevci	6	3	1	2	10	9	10
7	NK Dugo Selo	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
8	NK Zagora	6	2	3	1	17	12	9
9	NK Solin	6	2	2	2	9	9	8
10	NK Inker Zapresic	6	2	1	3	9	11	7
11	NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac	6	2	1	3	5	8	7
12	NK Grobnican	6	2	1	3	8	13	7
13	NK Lucko	6	1	2	3	7	8	5
14	NK Slavonija Pozega	6	1	2	3	11	13	5
15	NK Koprivnica	6	1	1	4	8	16	4
16	Varteks Varazdin	6	1	1	4	4	12	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Trnje	NK Uljanik
NK Solin	1-3 L	3-1 W
NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac	0-1 L	3-2 W
Bjelovar	2-0 W	4-3 W
NK Dugo Selo	0-1 L	3-0 W
NK Grobnican	5-1 W	2-5 L
NK Kustosija	1-0 W	1-1 D
NK Uskok	1-2 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: NK Uljanik (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Trnje

LWWLWWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	NK Solin Croatia 2.NL	0-1	1-3	2	6	L
19/09	NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac Croatia 2.NL	0-1	0-1	6	7	L
12/09	NK Jarun Croatia 2.NL	1-2	3-3	5	2	D
05/09	NK Koprivnica Croatia 2.NL	0-0	1-0	5	4	W
28/08	Bjelovar Croatia 2.NL	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
22/08	NK Inker Zapresic Croatia 2.NL	1-0	3-0	2	4	W
30/05	NK Dugo Selo Croatia 2.NL	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
23/05	NK Grobnican Croatia 2.NL	0-0	5-1	6	1	W
16/05	NK Kustosija Croatia 2.NL	–	1-0	–	–	W
09/05	NK Uskok Croatia 2.NL	0-2	1-2	3	2	L

NK Uljanik

WWDLWWWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	NK Slavonija Pozega Croatia 2.NL	2-1	3-3	3	3	D
19/09	NK Zagora Croatia 2.NL	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
11/09	NK Lucko Croatia 2.NL	2-1	2-2	4	4	D
04/09	NK Dugo Selo Croatia 2.NL	1-0	3-0	3	5	W
30/08	NK Solin Croatia 2.NL	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
21/08	NK Hrvatski Dragovoljac Croatia 2.NL	2-1	3-2	2	4	W
29/05	NK Grobnican Croatia 2.NL	–	2-5	–	–	L
22/05	NK Kustosija Croatia 2.NL	0-1	1-1	1	3	D
16/05	NK Uskok Croatia 2.NL	2-2	4-3	2	7	W
09/05	Bjelovar Croatia 2.NL	3-1	4-3	2	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Trnje vs NK Uljanik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Trnje win (38%). Probabilities: NK Trnje 38%, draw 25%, NK Uljanik 36%.

How many goals are expected in NK Trnje vs NK Uljanik?

The model expects 3.5 goals (NK Trnje 1.78 · NK Uljanik 1.72), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Trnje vs NK Uljanik?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.