Football · Greece Super League 1 · 18/10, 16:30
Prediction: Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis
Team pages: Panathinaikos · Asteras Tripolis
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Panathinaikos2.12
Asteras Tripolis0.42
1X2
Panathinaikos
Draw
Asteras Tripolis
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 53%
Not both to score 56%
Most likely score
2-0 18%
Recent form · 10 last
Panathinaikos
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Asteras Tripolis
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Panathinaikos
5–1
Asteras Tripolis
(6 last)
- Asteras Tripolis1-2Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos2-0Asteras Tripolis
- Asteras Tripolis0-1Panathinaikos
- Panathinaikos0-1Asteras Tripolis
- Panathinaikos2-0Asteras Tripolis
- Asteras Tripolis1-4Panathinaikos
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Panathinaikos 1587 · Asteras Tripolis 1498
| Panathinaikos | Draw | Asteras Tripolis | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 77% | 18% | 5% |
| Market | 77% | 17% | 6% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Panathinaikos (rating 1587 vs 1498).
- H2H favours Panathinaikos: 5-0-1.
- High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Panathinaikos | Asteras Tripolis | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 0.8 | 1 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 5.5 | 2.4 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.6 | 4.9 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Panathinaikos 5–0–1 Asteras Tripolis
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/26 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Panathinaikos |
| 26/10/25 Greece Super League 1 | Panathinaikos | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Asteras Tripolis |
| 08/12/24 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Panathinaikos |
| 18/08/24 Greece Super League 1 | Panathinaikos | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Asteras Tripolis |
| 21/01/24 Greece Super League 1 | Panathinaikos | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Asteras Tripolis |
| 28/09/23 Greece Super League 1 | Asteras Tripolis | 1-4 HT 1-2 | Panathinaikos |
Standings · Greece Super League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiacos | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK Salonika | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 8 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Salonika | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI Crete | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 FC | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisias FC | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos Athinon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 | 2 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 12 | 0 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Panathinaikos | Asteras Tripolis |
|---|---|---|
| Olympiacos | 0-1 L | 0-1 L |
| Panetolikos | 3-0 W | 1-3 L |
| Kifisias FC | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| AEK Athens | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 0 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Panathinaikos (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Panathinaikos
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | Olympiacos Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 11 | L |
| 20/09 | Kalamata Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 13/09 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 10/09 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 11 | 6 | W |
| 06/09 | PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1 |
2-0 | 3-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 31/08 | Levadiakos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
| 17/05 | PAOK Salonika Greece Super League 1 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 4 | D |
| 13/05 | Olympiacos Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
Asteras Tripolis
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10 | Atromitos Athinon Greece Super League 1 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 20/09 | OFI Crete Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 13/09 | AEK Athens Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 07/09 | Iraklis 1908 FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 30/08 | Olympiacos Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 23/08 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 21/05 | Panetolikos Greece Super League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 16/05 | Kifisias FC Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 11 | 5 | D |
| 12/05 | Panserraikos Greece Super League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 10 | W |
| 09/05 | Larissa Greece Super League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 8 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Panathinaikos win (77%). Probabilities: Panathinaikos 77%, draw 17%, Asteras Tripolis 6%.
How many goals are expected in Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Panathinaikos 2.12 · Asteras Tripolis 0.42), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Asteras Tripolis?
The model gives a 56% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.