Football · Hungary NB III · 08/08, 17:30

Prediction: Erdi VSE vs Paksi SE II

Team pages: Erdi VSE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Erdi VSE1.96

Paksi SE II1.49

1X2

47% 24% 28%

Erdi VSE Draw Paksi SE II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Erdi VSE 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWLWWWDWD

Paksi SE II 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLWWLD

Head-to-head

Erdi VSE 2–1 Paksi SE II (3 last)

Paksi SE II2-3Erdi VSE
Erdi VSE0-2Paksi SE II
Erdi VSE2-0Paksi SE II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erdi VSE 1548 · Paksi SE II 1478

	Erdi VSE	Draw	Paksi SE II
Our model	48%	24%	29%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Erdi VSE (rating 1548 vs 1478).
H2H favours Erdi VSE: 2-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erdi VSE	Paksi SE II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 5.6	3.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
08:09 +1’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Erdi VSE 2–0–1 Paksi SE II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 Hungary NB III	Paksi SE II	2-3 HT 1-0	Erdi VSE
31/08/25 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	0-2 HT 0-2	Paksi SE II
09/09/23 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	2-0 HT 1-0	Paksi SE II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Ivancsa	1	1	0	0	4	0	3
2	MTK Budapest II	1	1	0	0	4	2	3
3	Pecsi MFC	1	1	0	0	2	0	3
4	Kaposvari Rakoczi	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
4	PEAC FC	1	1	0	0	2	1	3
6	Budaorsi SC	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
6	Erdi VSE	1	0	1	0	3	3	1
8	Majosi SE	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
8	Paksi SE II	1	0	1	0	2	2	1
10	Dunaujvaros FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Ferencvarosi TC II	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	BFC Siofok	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
12	Sarbogard SE	1	0	0	1	1	2	0
14	Budafoki MTE	1	0	0	1	2	4	0
15	Dunaharaszti MTK	1	0	0	1	0	2	0
16	Szekszardi	1	0	0	1	0	4	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erdi VSE	Paksi SE II
Majosi SE	3-3 D	2-2 D
Kaposvari Rakoczi	2-1 W	2-1 W
BFC Siofok	2-1 W	1-3 L
Balatonlelle SE	3-2 W	0-1 L
FC Nagykanizsa	1-3 L	0-5 L
Ivancsa	2-1 W	0-3 L
PEAC FC	0-1 L	2-2 D
Dombovari FC	2-0 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Erdi VSE (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Erdi VSE

WLWLWWWDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	1-1	3-3	7	7	D
11/07	Bicskei TC Europe Friendlies	1-0	3-1	6	0	W
24/05	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-3	8	7	D
17/05	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/05	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	2	8	W
02/05	Balatonlelle SE Hungary NB III	1-2	3-2	8	7	W
26/04	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	6	7	L
19/04	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	5	4	W
11/04	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
05/04	Dombovari FC Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	6	3	W

Paksi SE II

WDLLLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
24/05	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	0-2	2-3	–	–	L
17/05	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	–	–	W
10/05	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
03/05	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	10	4	L
26/04	Balatonlelle SE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
19/04	FC Nagykanizsa Hungary NB III	0-2	0-5	3	2	L
11/04	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
05/04	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-0	2-2	4	5	D
29/03	Dombovari FC Hungary NB III	4-0	4-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erdi VSE vs Paksi SE II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Erdi VSE win (47%). Probabilities: Erdi VSE 47%, draw 24%, Paksi SE II 28%.

How many goals are expected in Erdi VSE vs Paksi SE II?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Erdi VSE 1.96 · Paksi SE II 1.49), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Erdi VSE vs Paksi SE II?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.