Football · Hungary NB III · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Budafoki MTE vs Erdi VSE

Team pages: Budafoki MTE · Erdi VSE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.72Total

Budafoki MTE2.25

Erdi VSE1.47

1X2

54% 22% 24%

Budafoki MTE Draw Erdi VSE

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Budafoki MTE 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLLDL

Erdi VSE 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLDWLWLW

Head-to-head

Budafoki MTE 1–1 Erdi VSE (2 last)

Budafoki MTE2-0Erdi VSE
Erdi VSE2-1Budafoki MTE

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Budafoki MTE 1512 · Erdi VSE 1484

	Budafoki MTE	Draw	Erdi VSE
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	54%	22%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.72 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Budafoki MTE	Erdi VSE
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.4	2.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.3	2.4 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.10

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.95

Under 3.51.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:01 +8’	1.65	4.10	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Budafoki MTE 1–0–1 Erdi VSE

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/17 Hungary Cup	Budafoki MTE	2-0 HT 1-0	Erdi VSE
11/02/17 Hungary Cup	Erdi VSE	2-1 HT 1-1	Budafoki MTE

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	12	11	1	0	34	4	34
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	11	7	1	3	31	14	22
3	Ferencvarosi TC II	11	6	3	2	26	15	21
4	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	24	20	20
5	Ivancsa	11	6	0	5	26	23	18
6	Majosi SE	11	5	3	3	24	23	18
7	Budafoki MTE	11	5	2	4	21	18	17
8	PEAC FC	11	4	4	3	17	16	16
9	MTK Budapest II	10	5	0	5	26	20	15
10	Erdi VSE	11	4	3	4	25	25	15
11	BFC Siofok	11	4	2	5	18	15	14
12	Budaorsi SC	11	3	3	5	17	30	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	1	4	6	20	24	7
14	Sarbogard SE	11	1	2	8	9	31	5
15	Szekszardi	11	0	0	11	5	45	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Budafoki MTE	Erdi VSE
Ferencvarosi TC II	1-3 L	3-3 D
Majosi SE	3-3 D	2-3 L
Pecsi MFC	1-2 L	1-2 L
Dunaharaszti MTK	2-4 L	1-1 D
Paksi SE II	2-1 W	3-1 W
PEAC FC	2-0 W	3-1 W
Sarbogard SE	1-0 W	4-3 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Erdi VSE (3 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Budafoki MTE

WWDWWWLLDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	4	2	L
10/10	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	3-0	3-3	8	4	D
03/10	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	0	1	L
26/09	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-0	2-4	3	2	L
19/09	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
29/08	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	2-1	3-1	2	4	W
26/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	4-0	15	3	W
15/08	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/08	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	3	3	W
08/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	–	–	W

Erdi VSE

WDLLDWLWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	8	W
11/10	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	5	6	L
03/10	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	1-4	–	–	L
19/09	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	3-1	4-3	7	4	W
05/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-2	3-3	8	3	D
30/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
26/08	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	3-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Budafoki MTE vs Erdi VSE?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Budafoki MTE win (54%). Probabilities: Budafoki MTE 54%, draw 22%, Erdi VSE 24%.

How many goals are expected in Budafoki MTE vs Erdi VSE?

The model expects 3.72 goals (Budafoki MTE 2.25 · Erdi VSE 1.47), with a 50% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Budafoki MTE vs Erdi VSE?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.