Football · Hungary NB III · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: BFC Siofok vs Ferencvarosi TC II

Team pages: BFC Siofok · Ferencvarosi TC II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.21Total

BFC Siofok1.21

Ferencvarosi TC II2.01

1X2

22% 23% 55%

BFC Siofok Draw Ferencvarosi TC II

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

BFC Siofok 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWWLLL

Ferencvarosi TC II 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLDWWW

Head-to-head

BFC Siofok 0–1–2 Ferencvarosi TC II (3 last)

Ferencvarosi TC II1-1BFC Siofok
BFC Siofok0-1Ferencvarosi TC II
BFC Siofok1-2Ferencvarosi TC II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · BFC Siofok 1503 · Ferencvarosi TC II 1544

	BFC Siofok	Draw	Ferencvarosi TC II
Our model	22%	23%	55%
Market	22%	22%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ferencvarosi TC II (rating 1503 vs 1544).
H2H favours Ferencvarosi TC II: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	BFC Siofok	Ferencvarosi TC II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.3	2.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 3.2	2.6 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.3	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.10

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:15

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:57 +18’	4.00	4.10	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · BFC Siofok 0–1–2 Ferencvarosi TC II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/04/26 Hungary NB III	Ferencvarosi TC II	1-1 HT 0-0	BFC Siofok
05/10/25 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	0-1 HT 0-0	Ferencvarosi TC II
29/09/24 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	1-2 HT 0-1	Ferencvarosi TC II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	12	11	1	0	34	4	34
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	11	7	1	3	31	14	22
3	Ferencvarosi TC II	11	6	3	2	26	15	21
4	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	24	20	20
5	Ivancsa	11	6	0	5	26	23	18
6	Majosi SE	11	5	3	3	24	23	18
7	Budafoki MTE	11	5	2	4	21	18	17
8	PEAC FC	11	4	4	3	17	16	16
9	MTK Budapest II	10	5	0	5	26	20	15
10	Erdi VSE	11	4	3	4	25	25	15
11	BFC Siofok	11	4	2	5	18	15	14
12	Budaorsi SC	11	3	3	5	17	30	12
13	Paksi SE II	11	1	4	6	20	24	7
14	Sarbogard SE	11	1	2	8	9	31	5
15	Szekszardi	11	0	0	11	5	45	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	BFC Siofok	Ferencvarosi TC II
Majosi SE	2-3 L	5-0 W
Pecsi MFC	0-1 L	0-3 L
Paksi SE II	3-1 W	2-2 D
Sarbogard SE	1-1 D	1-0 W
Budafoki MTE	0-0 D	3-1 W
MTK Budapest II	2-1 W	2-0 W
PEAC FC	1-2 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ferencvarosi TC II (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

BFC Siofok

LWDDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
11/10	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
03/10	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
05/09	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
29/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	7	W
26/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-1	2-1	4	3	W
09/08	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-1	1-2	–	–	L

Ferencvarosi TC II

DLWWDLDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	7	2	W
10/10	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	0-0	4-1	3	2	W
03/10	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
26/09	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-2	2-2	–	–	D
19/09	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	1-0	2-3	–	–	L
05/09	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	2-0	3-3	4	3	D
29/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
26/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-0	5-0	6	1	W
15/08	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
12/08	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in BFC Siofok vs Ferencvarosi TC II?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Ferencvarosi TC II win (55%). Probabilities: BFC Siofok 22%, draw 23%, Ferencvarosi TC II 55%.

How many goals are expected in BFC Siofok vs Ferencvarosi TC II?

The model expects 3.21 goals (BFC Siofok 1.21 · Ferencvarosi TC II 2.01), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in BFC Siofok vs Ferencvarosi TC II?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.