Football · Hungary NB III · 31/10, 13:00

Prediction: Erdi VSE vs BFC Siofok

Team pages: Erdi VSE · BFC Siofok

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Erdi VSE1.84

BFC Siofok1.51

1X2

45% 24% 31%

Erdi VSE Draw BFC Siofok

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Erdi VSE 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDWLWLWD

BFC Siofok 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDWWWLLLW

Head-to-head

Erdi VSE 2–0 BFC Siofok (2 last)

BFC Siofok1-2Erdi VSE
Erdi VSE1-0BFC Siofok

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Erdi VSE 1491 · BFC Siofok 1510

	Erdi VSE	Draw	BFC Siofok
Our model	45%	24%	31%
Market	45%	24%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Erdi VSE: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Erdi VSE	BFC Siofok
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.3	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.1	0.7 / 2.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.80

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
04:05 +6’	2.00	3.80	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Erdi VSE 2–0–0 BFC Siofok

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Hungary NB III	BFC Siofok	1-2 HT 0-1	Erdi VSE
26/10/25 Hungary NB III	Erdi VSE	1-0 HT 0-0	BFC Siofok

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	13	12	1	0	40	4	37
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	12	8	1	3	35	17	25
3	Ivancsa	12	7	0	5	29	23	21
4	Ferencvarosi TC II	12	6	3	3	27	18	21
5	Majosi SE	12	6	3	3	26	24	21
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	24	20	20
7	Budafoki MTE	12	5	3	4	23	20	18
8	BFC Siofok	12	5	2	5	21	16	17
9	Erdi VSE	12	4	4	4	27	27	16
10	PEAC FC	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
11	MTK Budapest II	11	5	0	6	29	24	15
12	Budaorsi SC	12	3	3	6	17	36	12
13	Paksi SE II	12	2	4	6	26	24	10
14	Sarbogard SE	12	1	2	9	9	37	5
15	Szekszardi	12	0	0	12	6	47	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Erdi VSE	BFC Siofok
Budafoki MTE	2-2 D	0-0 D
MTK Budapest II	1-3 L	2-1 W
Sarbogard SE	4-3 W	1-1 D
Ferencvarosi TC II	3-3 D	3-1 W
Majosi SE	2-3 L	2-3 L
Pecsi MFC	1-2 L	0-1 L
Dunaharaszti MTK	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Erdi VSE

DLLDWLWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-2	4	3	D
17/10	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	8	W
11/10	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	5	6	L
03/10	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	5	2	W
26/09	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-0	1-4	–	–	L
19/09	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	3-1	4-3	7	4	W
05/09	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	0-2	3-3	8	3	D
30/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-3	4	5	L
26/08	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	2	3	L
15/08	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

BFC Siofok

WDDWWWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
17/10	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	0-1	2-3	3	3	L
11/10	Pecsi MFC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-1	1	4	L
03/10	Dunaharaszti MTK Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/09	Paksi SE II Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	3	7	W
05/09	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	2-1	4-1	2	3	W
29/08	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	3-1	6	7	W
26/08	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
12/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	0-1	2-1	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Erdi VSE vs BFC Siofok?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Erdi VSE win (45%). Probabilities: Erdi VSE 45%, draw 24%, BFC Siofok 31%.

How many goals are expected in Erdi VSE vs BFC Siofok?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Erdi VSE 1.84 · BFC Siofok 1.51), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Erdi VSE vs BFC Siofok?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.