Football · Hungary NB III · 31/10, 13:00

Prediction: Dunaharaszti MTK vs Paksi SE II

Team pages: Dunaharaszti MTK · Paksi SE II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Dunaharaszti MTK2.2

Paksi SE II1.73

1X2

48% 23% 29%

Dunaharaszti MTK Draw Paksi SE II

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Dunaharaszti MTK 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWLLDWWWW

Paksi SE II 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDLLWDW

Head-to-head

Dunaharaszti MTK 0–1–0 Paksi SE II (1 last)

Dunaharaszti MTK1-1Paksi SE II

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Dunaharaszti MTK 1547 · Paksi SE II 1479

	Dunaharaszti MTK	Draw	Paksi SE II
Our model	48%	22%	30%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Dunaharaszti MTK (rating 1547 vs 1479).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Dunaharaszti MTK	Paksi SE II
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	2.3 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.7	2.7 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.75

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.80

Under 3.252.00

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
03:46 +25’	1.91	3.75	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Dunaharaszti MTK 0–1–0 Paksi SE II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/24 Hungary NB III	Dunaharaszti MTK	1-1 HT 0-0	Paksi SE II

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Pecsi MFC	13	12	1	0	40	4	37
2	Kaposvari Rakoczi	12	8	1	3	35	17	25
3	Ivancsa	12	7	0	5	29	23	21
4	Ferencvarosi TC II	12	6	3	3	27	18	21
5	Majosi SE	12	6	3	3	26	24	21
6	Dunaharaszti MTK	12	6	2	4	24	20	20
7	Budafoki MTE	12	5	3	4	23	20	18
8	BFC Siofok	12	5	2	5	21	16	17
9	Erdi VSE	12	4	4	4	27	27	16
10	PEAC FC	12	4	4	4	17	19	16
11	MTK Budapest II	11	5	0	6	29	24	15
12	Budaorsi SC	12	3	3	6	17	36	12
13	Paksi SE II	12	2	4	6	26	24	10
14	Sarbogard SE	12	1	2	9	9	37	5
15	Szekszardi	12	0	0	12	6	47	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Dunaharaszti MTK	Paksi SE II
Budaorsi SC	3-0 W	1-1 D
Szekszardi	4-1 W	8-1 W
BFC Siofok	2-1 W	1-3 L
Budafoki MTE	4-2 W	1-2 L
PEAC FC	1-1 D	1-1 D
MTK Budapest II	2-4 L	2-4 L
Kaposvari Rakoczi	2-4 L	1-3 L
Ivancsa	3-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 2 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Dunaharaszti MTK (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Dunaharaszti MTK

WDWLLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	1-0	3-0	5	7	W
10/10	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	2-0	4-1	6	0	W
03/10	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
26/09	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	0-1	4-2	8	2	W
19/09	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
06/09	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	2-1	2-4	1	4	L
29/08	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	2-2	2-4	4	3	L
26/08	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	Erdi VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/08	Majosi SE Hungary NB III	2-1	2-1	3	2	W

Paksi SE II

DLLLDLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Sarbogard SE Hungary NB III	1-0	6-0	–	–	W
10/10	Budaorsi SC Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	1	4	D
03/10	Szekszardi Hungary NB III	4-0	8-1	9	2	W
27/09	BFC Siofok Hungary NB III	0-2	1-3	6	7	L
19/09	Budafoki MTE Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	5	5	L
05/09	PEAC FC Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
29/08	MTK Budapest II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-4	5	3	L
26/08	Kaposvari Rakoczi Hungary NB III	0-1	1-3	5	4	L
15/08	Ivancsa Hungary NB III	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
12/08	Ferencvarosi TC II Hungary NB III	1-2	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Dunaharaszti MTK vs Paksi SE II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Dunaharaszti MTK win (48%). Probabilities: Dunaharaszti MTK 48%, draw 23%, Paksi SE II 29%.

How many goals are expected in Dunaharaszti MTK vs Paksi SE II?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Dunaharaszti MTK 2.2 · Paksi SE II 1.73), with a 57% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Dunaharaszti MTK vs Paksi SE II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.