Football · Hungary NB III · 24/10, 13:00

Prediction: Csepel vs Szolnoki Mav FC

Team pages: Szolnoki Mav FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.98Total

Csepel2.32

Szolnoki Mav FC1.65

1X2

52% 22% 26%

Csepel Draw Szolnoki Mav FC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Csepel 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWDLDLDW

Szolnoki Mav FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDWDLLDL

Head-to-head

Csepel 0–1 Szolnoki Mav FC (1 last)

Csepel3-4Szolnoki Mav FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Csepel 1539 · Szolnoki Mav FC 1481

	Csepel	Draw	Szolnoki Mav FC
Our model	52%	21%	27%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.98 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Csepel (rating 1539 vs 1481).
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Csepel	Szolnoki Mav FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.6	1.9 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.9	3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 1.15 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +3’	1.75	3.90	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Csepel 0–0–1 Szolnoki Mav FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/09/14 Hungary Cup	Csepel	3-4 HT 2-2	Szolnoki Mav FC

Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, South East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Gyulai Termal	12	12	0	0	43	10	36
2	ESMTK	12	8	3	1	33	12	27
3	III Keruleti TUE	12	8	2	2	16	5	26
4	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	12	5	5	2	22	15	20
5	Ujpest II	12	5	4	3	28	18	19
6	Vasas SC II	12	5	3	4	25	14	18
7	Csepel	12	4	5	3	24	18	17
8	FC Dabas	12	4	2	6	18	30	14
9	Bekescsabai Elore SE	12	3	5	4	18	17	14
10	Monori SE	12	3	5	4	22	23	14
11	Szolnoki Mav FC	12	3	5	4	26	28	14
12	Kispest Honved II	12	3	2	7	19	21	11
13	Sandorfalvi SK	12	3	1	8	8	30	10
14	BKV Elore SC	12	2	2	8	13	41	8
15	Hodmezovasarhelyi	12	1	5	6	13	25	8
16	Szegedi VSE	12	1	3	8	15	36	6

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Csepel	Szolnoki Mav FC
Kispest Honved II	3-1 W	1-0 W
Szegedi VSE	1-1 D	3-3 D
FC Dabas	0-1 L	2-2 D
Szeged-Csanad Grosics II	1-1 D	0-5 L
Bekescsabai Elore SE	2-2 D	2-0 W
ESMTK	2-1 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Csepel (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Csepel

WDWWDLDLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/10	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	1-1	3-1	3	3	W
10/10	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
04/10	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
26/09	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	4	4	D
20/09	Vasas SC II Hungary NB III	0-3	0-6	3	4	L
05/09	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	0	0	D
29/08	Sandorfalvi SK Hungary NB III	3-0	5-1	–	–	W
26/08	BKV Elore SC Hungary NB III	3-0	9-1	3	5	W
15/08	Hodmezovasarhelyi Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
12/08	ESMTK Hungary NB III	1-1	2-1	5	3	W

Szolnoki Mav FC

WLDDWDLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	ESMTK Hungary NB III	1-1	2-3	–	–	L
10/10	III Keruleti TUE Hungary NB III	0-1	1-1	4	5	D
03/10	Gyulai Termal Hungary NB III	1-2	3-4	–	–	L
26/09	Ujpest II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-2	5	7	L
19/09	Monori SE Hungary NB III	2-1	4-4	–	–	D
05/09	Kispest Honved II Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Szegedi VSE Hungary NB III	2-0	3-3	6	6	D
26/08	FC Dabas Hungary NB III	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Szeged-Csanad Grosics II Hungary NB III	0-1	0-5	–	–	L
12/08	Bekescsabai Elore SE Hungary NB III	1-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Csepel vs Szolnoki Mav FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Csepel win (52%). Probabilities: Csepel 52%, draw 22%, Szolnoki Mav FC 26%.

How many goals are expected in Csepel vs Szolnoki Mav FC?

The model expects 3.98 goals (Csepel 2.32 · Szolnoki Mav FC 1.65), with a 60% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Csepel vs Szolnoki Mav FC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.