Football · Hungary NB III · 31/10, 16:30

Prediction: Papai Perutz vs Sarisapi BSE

Team pages: Papai Perutz · Sarisapi BSE

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Papai Perutz1.18

Sarisapi BSE1.66

1X2

27% 25% 48%

Papai Perutz Draw Sarisapi BSE

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Papai Perutz 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWLLDLWLLL

Sarisapi BSE 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWWDDWLD

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Papai Perutz 1440 · Sarisapi BSE 1508

	Papai Perutz	Draw	Sarisapi BSE
Our model	26%	27%	47%
Market	28%	24%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sarisapi BSE (rating 1440 vs 1508).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Papai Perutz	Sarisapi BSE
Goals for / against (FT)	0.7 / 2.2	1.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:15 +9’	3.25	3.80	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Hungary NB III · NB III 26/27, North West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dorogi FC	13	9	3	1	36	12	30
2	FC Tatabanya	13	9	3	1	31	10	30
3	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	13	8	5	0	35	12	29
4	SC Sopron	13	6	3	4	22	17	21
5	Komarom VSE	13	6	3	4	20	18	21
6	Sarisapi BSE	13	6	3	4	20	20	21
7	Puskas Academy II	13	6	2	5	29	24	20
8	MTE 1904	13	5	5	3	19	13	20
9	Bicskei TC	13	6	1	6	27	26	19
10	Zalaegerszegi TE II	13	5	2	6	23	24	17
11	Györi ETO II	13	4	2	7	16	19	14
12	Veszprem FC	13	3	4	6	21	28	13
13	Kiraly SZE	13	3	4	6	17	25	13
14	Papai Perutz	13	3	2	8	10	25	11
15	Balatonalmadi SE	13	2	2	9	11	36	8
16	1908 SZAC Budapest	13	0	2	11	6	34	2

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Papai Perutz	Sarisapi BSE
SC Sopron	1-3 L	1-0 W
FC Tatabanya	0-1 L	0-3 L
Bicskei TC	0-2 L	3-2 W
Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE	0-4 L	1-2 L
Puskas Academy II	0-5 L	2-1 W
Zalaegerszegi TE II	1-0 W	2-2 D
Komarom VSE	2-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	3 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sarisapi BSE (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Papai Perutz

LWLLDLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	1-2	1-3	4	7	L
17/10	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	2	5	L
10/10	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	0-1	0-2	4	5	L
03/10	Györi ETO II Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
27/09	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Hungary NB III	0-1	0-4	3	4	L
19/09	MTE 1904 Hungary NB III	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
05/09	Dorogi FC Hungary NB III	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
29/08	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-2	0-5	2	7	L
26/08	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
15/08	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	1-1	2-4	–	–	L

Sarisapi BSE

LWLWWDDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Zalaegerszegi TE II Hungary NB III	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Komarom VSE Hungary NB III	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
10/10	1908 SZAC Budapest Hungary NB III	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Veszprem FC Hungary NB III	1-0	1-1	3	1	D
26/09	Kiraly SZE Hungary NB III	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
06/09	Puskas Academy II Hungary NB III	0-0	2-1	8	6	W
29/08	SC Sopron Hungary NB III	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
26/08	FC Tatabanya Hungary NB III	0-1	0-3	5	2	L
15/08	Bicskei TC Hungary NB III	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
12/08	Szombathelyi Mav Haladas VSE Hungary NB III	0-2	1-2	2	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Papai Perutz vs Sarisapi BSE?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sarisapi BSE win (48%). Probabilities: Papai Perutz 27%, draw 25%, Sarisapi BSE 48%.

How many goals are expected in Papai Perutz vs Sarisapi BSE?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Papai Perutz 1.18 · Sarisapi BSE 1.66), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Papai Perutz vs Sarisapi BSE?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.