Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 14/08, 19:00

Prediction: NK Sencur vs NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.13Total

NK Sencur2.07

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana1.06

1X2

60% 23% 18%

NK Sencur Draw NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

NK Sencur 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

WDWDWDWWWL

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWDLLWWWL

Head-to-head

NK Sencur 1–1 NK IB 1975 Ljubljana (2 last)

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana2-0NK Sencur
NK Sencur2-0NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Sencur 1552 · NK IB 1975 Ljubljana 1486

	NK Sencur	Draw	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana
Our model	60%	23%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.13 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Sencur (rating 1552 vs 1486).
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Sencur	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.3 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/33/50%	67/0/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.5	0 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.00

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.88

2 (+1)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
14:02 +23’	1.50	4.00	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Sencur 1–0–1 NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	2-0	NK Sencur
15/08/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	2-0	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Adria Miren	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Roltek DOB	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	ND Idrija	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Litija	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Sencur	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Skofja Loka	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Sobec Lesce	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Svoboda Ljubljana	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Tolmin	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Fama Vipava	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Ziri	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	NK Rudar Trbovlje	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Sencur	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana
MNK Izola	0-3 L	1-4 L
NK Vrhnika	3-2 W	0-5 L
NK Fama Vipava	1-1 D	1-0 W
NK Sobec Lesce	2-0 W	1-4 L
Svoboda Ljubljana	0-0 D	3-0 W
ND Bistrc	5-1 W	3-1 W
NK Ziri	2-2 D	3-1 W
NK Tolmin	2-1 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 1 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: NK Sencur (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Sencur

WDWDWDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
09/05	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-1	3	10	W
25/04	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
17/04	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
03/04	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	5-1	0	1	W
28/03	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-2	–	–	D
23/03	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-1	7	5	W

NK IB 1975 Ljubljana

LLWDLLWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	1-4	2	2	L
16/05	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-0	8	4	W
09/05	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
03/05	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-1	0	5	W
25/04	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-5	–	–	L
18/04	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/04	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
04/04	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
28/03	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-4	–	–	L
21/03	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Sencur vs NK IB 1975 Ljubljana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Sencur win (60%). Probabilities: NK Sencur 60%, draw 23%, NK IB 1975 Ljubljana 18%.

How many goals are expected in NK Sencur vs NK IB 1975 Ljubljana?

The model expects 3.13 goals (NK Sencur 2.07 · NK IB 1975 Ljubljana 1.06), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Sencur vs NK IB 1975 Ljubljana?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.