Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 15/08, 17:30

Prediction: Svoboda Ljubljana vs ND Idrija

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.08Total

Svoboda Ljubljana1.78

ND Idrija1.3

1X2

48% 24% 28%

Svoboda Ljubljana Draw ND Idrija

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Svoboda Ljubljana 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLLDLW

ND Idrija 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLWLWLDD

Head-to-head

Svoboda Ljubljana 1–0 ND Idrija (1 last)

ND Idrija3-4Svoboda Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Svoboda Ljubljana 1496 · ND Idrija 1439

	Svoboda Ljubljana	Draw	ND Idrija
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	49%	23%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.08 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Svoboda Ljubljana (rating 1496 vs 1439).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Svoboda Ljubljana	ND Idrija
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.6	0.7 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	– / –
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	//%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.2	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.2	– / –

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.90

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
14:29 +6’	1.85	3.90	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Svoboda Ljubljana 1–0–0 ND Idrija

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/11/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	ND Idrija	3-4	Svoboda Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Sencur	1	1	0	3	0	3
2	MNK Izola	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Adria Miren	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Roltek DOB	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	ND Idrija	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Litija	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Skofja Loka	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Sobec Lesce	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Svoboda Ljubljana	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Tolmin	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Fama Vipava	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Ziri	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	NK Rudar Trbovlje	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	1	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Svoboda Ljubljana	ND Idrija
NK Skofja Loka	2-1 W	0-1 L
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	0-3 L	1-0 W
MNK Izola	2-2 D	1-3 L
NK Vrhnika	1-5 L	1-2 L
Roltek DOB	1-3 L	0-2 L
NK Rudar Trbovlje	1-0 W	0-6 L
NK Fama Vipava	1-2 L	1-0 W
ND Bistrc	3-0 W	3-3 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Svoboda Ljubljana (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Svoboda Ljubljana

WLDDWLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
09/05	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
25/04	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	1	6	L
18/04	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/04	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
04/04	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
29/03	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	1-2	8	2	L
21/03	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	2-0	3-0	3	2	W

ND Idrija

LLLLWLWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	ND Bistrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
17/05	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
09/05	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
02/05	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/04	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
04/04	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
28/03	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-2	–	–	L
21/03	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-6	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Svoboda Ljubljana vs ND Idrija?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Svoboda Ljubljana win (48%). Probabilities: Svoboda Ljubljana 48%, draw 24%, ND Idrija 28%.

How many goals are expected in Svoboda Ljubljana vs ND Idrija?

The model expects 3.08 goals (Svoboda Ljubljana 1.78 · ND Idrija 1.3), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Svoboda Ljubljana vs ND Idrija?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.