Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 04/09, 18:00

Prediction: NK Sencur vs NK Ziri

Team pages: NK Sencur · NK Ziri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

NK Sencur2.23

NK Ziri0.91

1X2

67% 19% 14%

NK Sencur Draw NK Ziri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 11%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Sencur 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWDWWWLWDD

NK Ziri 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDLDWL

Head-to-head

NK Sencur 3–2–1 NK Ziri (6 last)

NK Ziri2-2NK Sencur
NK Sencur1-1NK Ziri
NK Sencur3-1NK Ziri
NK Sencur1-0NK Ziri
NK Ziri2-4NK Sencur
NK Sencur0-1NK Ziri

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Sencur 1582 · NK Ziri 1401

	NK Sencur	Draw	NK Ziri
Our model	66%	20%	13%
Market	68%	18%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours NK Sencur (rating 1582 vs 1401).
H2H favours NK Sencur: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Sencur	NK Ziri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.1	0.6 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.8	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	2.7 / 9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.6 / 0.4	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.33▼	Bet365 1.33
X	4.50 → 5.00▲	Pinn 5.23
2	4.50 → 6.25▲	Pinn 7.06 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:44 +22’	1.50	4.50	4.50
16:09 +3’	1.33▼	5.00▲	6.25▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:21 +1’	1.26	5.23	7.06

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Sencur 3–2–1 NK Ziri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ziri	2-2	NK Sencur
12/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Ziri
16/11/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	3-1 HT 0-1	NK Ziri
11/08/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	1-0 HT 1-0	NK Ziri
15/08/20 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Ziri	2-4 HT 2-1	NK Sencur
28/09/18 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Sencur	0-1 HT 0-1	NK Ziri

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	3	3	0	0	19	2	9
2	ND Idrija	3	3	0	0	5	1	9
3	Roltek DOB	3	2	1	0	8	1	7
4	NK Rudar Trbovlje	3	2	1	0	5	2	7
5	NK Sencur	3	1	2	0	7	4	5
6	NK Tolmin	3	1	2	0	5	4	5
7	NK Skofja Loka	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
8	NK Ziri	3	1	1	1	4	5	4
9	NK Litija	3	1	0	2	4	6	3
10	NK Sobec Lesce	3	0	2	1	2	3	2
11	NK Adria Miren	3	0	1	2	4	8	1
12	Svoboda Ljubljana	3	0	1	2	1	5	1
13	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	3	0	0	3	0	6	0
14	NK Fama Vipava	3	0	0	3	1	19	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Sencur	NK Ziri
NK Skofja Loka	1-1 D	0-4 L
NK Tolmin	3-3 D	0-3 L
NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	3-0 W	1-3 L
MNK Izola	0-3 L	1-5 L
NK Vrhnika	3-2 W	0-5 L
Roltek DOB	1-0 W	0-3 L
NK Fama Vipava	1-1 D	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: NK Sencur (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Sencur

DWDWWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	4	6	D
22/08	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
14/08	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-0	–	–	W
23/05	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	1-1	3-2	2	4	W
09/05	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/05	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	2-1	3	10	W
25/04	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	5	6	D
17/04	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Svoboda Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

NK Ziri

LLLLLDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
23/08	NK Fama Vipava Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
16/08	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	11	4	D
23/05	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
17/05	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
10/05	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-4	–	–	L
03/05	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	1-3	11	5	L
25/04	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
18/04	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-5	–	–	L
11/04	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Sencur vs NK Ziri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Sencur win (67%). Probabilities: NK Sencur 67%, draw 19%, NK Ziri 14%.

How many goals are expected in NK Sencur vs NK Ziri?

The model expects 3.14 goals (NK Sencur 2.23 · NK Ziri 0.91), with a 54% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Sencur vs NK Ziri?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.