Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 11/09, 16:30

Prediction: NK Race vs SD Videm

Team pages: NK Race · SD Videm

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

NK Race1.55

SD Videm1.53

1X2

38% 25% 37%

NK Race Draw SD Videm

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

NK Race 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LWLDLWDLDL

SD Videm 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWWLLWLL

Head-to-head

NK Race 0–1–2 SD Videm (3 last)

NK Race1-1SD Videm
SD Videm3-0NK Race
SD Videm3-0NK Race

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NK Race 1452 · SD Videm 1498

	NK Race	Draw	SD Videm
Our model	37%	26%	37%
Market	38%	24%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Videm (rating 1452 vs 1498).
H2H favours SD Videm: 2-1-0.
High corners: 11.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NK Race	SD Videm
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.5	2.3 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	25/25/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.7	3 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.70

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 12:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.35▲	Pinn 2.37
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Bet365 3.70
2	2.50 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 12.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:23 +17’	2.30	3.60	2.50
12:37 +3’	2.35▲	3.70▲	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:41 +70’	2.37	3.38	2.46

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NK Race 0–1–2 SD Videm

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Race	1-1 HT 1-0	SD Videm
28/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	3-0 HT 3-0	NK Race
10/03/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	3-0 HT 1-0	NK Race

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Odranci	4	4	0	0	13	6	12
2	NK Ormoz	4	3	0	1	9	6	9
3	NK Podvinci	4	2	1	1	8	5	7
4	NK Smartno	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
5	NK Hajdina	4	2	1	1	8	8	7
6	NK Korotan Prevalje	4	1	3	0	5	3	6
7	SD Videm	5	2	0	3	8	12	6
8	NK Ljutomer	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
9	NK Fuzinar	4	2	0	2	11	8	6
10	Carda Martjanci	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
11	NK Limbus Pekre	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
12	NK Dobrovce	4	1	0	3	5	13	3
13	NK Race	5	0	2	3	4	7	2
14	NK Sampion Celje	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
15	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NK Race	SD Videm
NK Smartno	1-2 L	0-3 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	0-0 D	2-4 L
NK Hajdina	1-1 D	2-1 W
NK Brezice	0-1 L	0-1 L
DNS Zavrc	1-1 D	1-0 W
NK Fuzinar	1-5 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: SD Videm (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NK Race

LWLDLWDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
26/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
22/08	NK Ormoz Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
23/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
16/05	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
09/05	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/05	Carda Martjanci Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
25/04	NK Podvinci Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-1	–	–	W
18/04	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L

SD Videm

WLWWWLLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	NK Dobrovce Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	2-3	7	4	L
29/08	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
23/08	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	1	7	W
15/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L
23/05	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-6	–	–	L
16/05	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/05	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-2	–	–	W
03/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	5-2	4	2	W
25/04	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/04	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NK Race vs SD Videm?

According to our model, the most likely result is a NK Race win (38%). Probabilities: NK Race 38%, draw 25%, SD Videm 37%.

How many goals are expected in NK Race vs SD Videm?

The model expects 3.07 goals (NK Race 1.55 · SD Videm 1.53), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in NK Race vs SD Videm?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.