Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 12/09, 16:30

Prediction: Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK Fama Vipava

Team pages: Svoboda Ljubljana · NK Fama Vipava

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Svoboda Ljubljana2.06

NK Fama Vipava1.25

1X2

55% 22% 22%

Svoboda Ljubljana Draw NK Fama Vipava

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Svoboda Ljubljana 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLDLL

NK Fama Vipava 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDLWDDLLLL

Head-to-head

Svoboda Ljubljana 1–3–2 NK Fama Vipava (6 last)

NK Fama Vipava2-1Svoboda Ljubljana
Svoboda Ljubljana1-2NK Fama Vipava
NK Fama Vipava0-1Svoboda Ljubljana
NK Fama Vipava1-1Svoboda Ljubljana
Svoboda Ljubljana1-1NK Fama Vipava
NK Fama Vipava1-1Svoboda Ljubljana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Svoboda Ljubljana 1423 · NK Fama Vipava 1457

	Svoboda Ljubljana	Draw	NK Fama Vipava
Our model	55%	23%	22%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours NK Fama Vipava: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Svoboda Ljubljana	NK Fama Vipava
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 2.3	1 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	25/0/75%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 2.8	0.7 / 2.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.4	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.10

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.39 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +6’	1.61	4.10	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:44 +148’	1.55	4.39	3.89

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Svoboda Ljubljana 1–3–2 NK Fama Vipava

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	2-1 HT 2-0	Svoboda Ljubljana
13/09/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	Svoboda Ljubljana	1-2	NK Fama Vipava
24/09/23 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	0-1 HT 0-1	Svoboda Ljubljana
13/11/22 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	1-1 HT 1-1	Svoboda Ljubljana
02/06/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	Svoboda Ljubljana	1-1 HT 1-0	NK Fama Vipava
08/09/19 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Fama Vipava	1-1 HT 0-1	Svoboda Ljubljana

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, West

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MNK Izola	4	4	0	0	22	2	12
2	NK Rudar Trbovlje	4	3	1	0	8	4	10
3	ND Idrija	4	3	1	0	5	1	10
4	Roltek DOB	4	2	1	1	8	4	7
5	NK Sencur	4	1	3	0	7	4	6
6	NK Tolmin	4	1	3	0	7	6	6
7	NK Skofja Loka	4	1	2	1	8	7	5
8	NK Ziri	4	1	2	1	4	5	5
9	NK Adria Miren	4	1	1	2	8	9	4
10	NK Litija	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
11	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana	4	1	0	3	4	7	3
12	NK Sobec Lesce	4	0	2	2	3	7	2
13	Svoboda Ljubljana	4	0	1	3	2	9	1
14	NK Fama Vipava	4	0	0	4	3	22	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Svoboda Ljubljana	NK Fama Vipava
ND Idrija	0-1 L	0-1 L
NK Skofja Loka	2-1 W	0-5 L
MNK Izola	2-2 D	0-11 L
Roltek DOB	1-3 L	2-2 D
NK Rudar Trbovlje	1-0 W	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Svoboda Ljubljana (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Svoboda Ljubljana

WLLDLWLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	NK Adria Miren Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-4	–	–	L
30/08	NK Litija Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
23/08	NK Sobec Lesce Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	4	4	D
15/08	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	0-1	1	4	L
23/05	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
16/05	NK IB 1975 Ljubljana Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	6	4	L
09/05	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	NK Vrhnika Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
25/04	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	1	6	L
18/04	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W

NK Fama Vipava

WDLWDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	MNK Izola Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-11	–	–	L
23/08	NK Ziri Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-3	1	5	L
15/08	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-5	2	4	L
24/05	Roltek DOB Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	2-2	4	5	D
16/05	NK Tolmin Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-0	–	–	D
10/05	NK Rudar Trbovlje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-0	–	–	W
02/05	ND Idrija Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
25/04	NK Sencur Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
18/04	NK Skofja Loka Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK Fama Vipava?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Svoboda Ljubljana win (55%). Probabilities: Svoboda Ljubljana 55%, draw 22%, NK Fama Vipava 22%.

How many goals are expected in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK Fama Vipava?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Svoboda Ljubljana 2.06 · NK Fama Vipava 1.25), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Svoboda Ljubljana vs NK Fama Vipava?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.