Football · Slovenia 3. SNL · 06/09, 10:30

Prediction: SD Videm vs NK Dobrovce

Team pages: SD Videm · NK Dobrovce

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

SD Videm2.83

NK Dobrovce1.35

1X2

67% 18% 15%

SD Videm Draw NK Dobrovce

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

SD Videm 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

DWLWWWLLWL

NK Dobrovce 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDLLL

Head-to-head

SD Videm 5–1–0 NK Dobrovce (6 last)

SD Videm4-2NK Dobrovce
NK Dobrovce1-5SD Videm
SD Videm4-1NK Dobrovce
SD Videm2-2NK Dobrovce
SD Videm1-0NK Dobrovce
NK Dobrovce1-3SD Videm

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · SD Videm 1517 · NK Dobrovce 1430

	SD Videm	Draw	NK Dobrovce
Our model	68%	17%	15%
Market	67%	18%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours SD Videm (rating 1517 vs 1430).
H2H favours SD Videm: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	SD Videm	NK Dobrovce
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2.1	1 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	6 / 4	2 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.4 / 0	3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.82

2 (+1.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.38 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.07

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
18:56 +2’	1.33	5.00	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
22:48 +33’	1.29	5.38	6.07

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · SD Videm 5–1–0 NK Dobrovce

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	4-2 HT 2-1	NK Dobrovce
29/08/25 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	1-5 HT 1-2	SD Videm
03/11/24 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	4-1 HT 2-0	NK Dobrovce
21/09/22 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	2-2 HT 2-1	NK Dobrovce
05/09/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	SD Videm	1-0 HT 1-0	NK Dobrovce
05/06/21 Slovenia 3. SNL	NK Dobrovce	1-3 HT 0-2	SD Videm

Standings · Slovenia 3. SNL · 3. SNL 26/27, East

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NK Ormoz	3	3	0	0	9	4	9
2	NK Odranci	3	3	0	0	8	3	9
3	NK Smartno	4	2	1	1	7	5	7
4	NK Hajdina	4	2	1	1	8	8	7
5	NK Fuzinar	3	2	0	1	8	3	6
6	NK Ljutomer	4	2	0	2	8	6	6
7	NK Korotan Prevalje	4	1	3	0	5	3	6
8	NK Podvinci	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
9	Carda Martjanci	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
10	NK Limbus Pekre	3	1	0	2	4	5	3
11	SD Videm	3	1	0	2	4	8	3
12	NK Race	4	0	2	2	3	5	2
13	NK Sampion Celje	3	0	1	2	3	7	1
14	DNS Zavrc	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	NK Dobrovce	3	0	0	3	2	11	0

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	SD Videm	NK Dobrovce
NK Smartno	0-3 L	1-0 W
NK Fuzinar	2-1 W	1-5 L
NK Korotan Prevalje	2-4 L	1-2 L
NK Ljutomer	4-6 L	0-3 L
NK Hajdina	2-1 W	0-3 L
NK Brezice	0-1 L	2-3 L
DNS Zavrc	1-0 W	0-3 L
NK Race	1-1 D	1-5 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: SD Videm (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

SD Videm

DWLWWWLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	0-3	7	3	L
23/08	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	1	7	W
15/08	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-4	–	–	L
23/05	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	4-6	–	–	L
16/05	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	–	2-1	–	–	W
09/05	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	–	5-2	–	–	W
03/05	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	5-2	4	2	W
25/04	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-1	–	–	L
19/04	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	5	10	W
11/04	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	0-1	1-1	3	5	D

NK Dobrovce

LLLWLLDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	NK Fuzinar Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L
22/08	NK Limbus Pekre Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
16/05	NK Ljutomer Slovenia 3. SNL	–	3-3	–	–	D
09/05	NK Hajdina Slovenia 3. SNL	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
05/05	NK Korotan Prevalje Slovenia 3. SNL	1-0	1-2	2	6	L
26/04	NK Smartno Slovenia 3. SNL	0-0	1-0	1	3	W
18/04	NK Brezice Slovenia 3. SNL	2-1	2-3	6	2	L
11/04	DNS Zavrc Slovenia 3. SNL	–	0-3	–	–	L
04/04	NK Race Slovenia 3. SNL	–	1-5	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in SD Videm vs NK Dobrovce?

According to our model, the most likely result is a SD Videm win (67%). Probabilities: SD Videm 67%, draw 18%, NK Dobrovce 15%.

How many goals are expected in SD Videm vs NK Dobrovce?

The model expects 4.18 goals (SD Videm 2.83 · NK Dobrovce 1.35), with a 55% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in SD Videm vs NK Dobrovce?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.