Football · Albania Championship · 24/10, 18:30

Prediction: Teuta Durres vs AF Elbasani

Team pages: Teuta Durres · AF Elbasani

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.39Total

Teuta Durres1.6

AF Elbasani0.79

1X2

56% 26% 18%

Teuta Durres Draw AF Elbasani

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-0 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Teuta Durres 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

LDWDWWWWWW

AF Elbasani 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDDLWDDL

Head-to-head

Teuta Durres 0–4–2 AF Elbasani (6 last)

Teuta Durres1-2AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani2-1Teuta Durres
Teuta Durres0-0AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani0-0Teuta Durres
Teuta Durres0-0AF Elbasani
Teuta Durres0-0AF Elbasani

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Teuta Durres 1568 · AF Elbasani 1486

	Teuta Durres	Draw	AF Elbasani
Our model	55%	27%	17%
Market	56%	26%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Teuta Durres (rating 1568 vs 1486).
H2H favours AF Elbasani: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 10.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Teuta Durres	AF Elbasani
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 0.6	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.2	1.8 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 06:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.60▼	Bet365 1.60
X	3.40 → 3.50▲	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
03:17 +3’	1.70	3.40	4.33
04:10 +10’	1.73▲	3.30▼	4.33
06:12 +2’	1.60▼	3.50▲	5.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Teuta Durres 0–4–2 AF Elbasani

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Albania Championship	Teuta Durres	1-2 HT 1-0	AF Elbasani
06/02/26 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	2-1 HT 0-0	Teuta Durres
03/12/25 Albania Championship	Teuta Durres	0-0 HT 0-0	AF Elbasani
27/09/25 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	0-0 HT 0-0	Teuta Durres
11/03/25 Albania Championship	Teuta Durres	0-0 HT 0-0	AF Elbasani
15/01/25 Albania Cup	Teuta Durres	0-0 HT 0-0	AF Elbasani

Standings · Albania Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Teuta Durres	7	6	1	0	14	2	19
2	FK Egnatia	7	6	0	1	16	6	18
3	FC Dinamo City	7	4	0	3	10	8	12
4	KF Tirana	7	3	2	2	12	10	11
5	FK Vora	7	2	2	3	8	12	8
6	AF Elbasani	7	1	4	2	9	10	7
7	Laci	7	2	1	4	7	11	7
8	Skenderbeu Korce	7	1	3	3	7	10	6
9	Vllaznia Shkoder	7	1	2	4	7	13	5
10	Partizani Tirana	7	1	1	5	9	17	4

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Teuta Durres	AF Elbasani
FC Dinamo City	2-0 W	1-2 L
Skenderbeu Korce	2-0 W	1-2 L
Vllaznia Shkoder	2-0 W	1-1 D
FK Vora	2-0 W	1-1 D
Laci	3-1 W	1-1 D
KF Tirana	3-1 W	2-2 D
FK Egnatia	3-2 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	7 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 4 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Teuta Durres (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Teuta Durres

LDWDWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/10	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	1-0	2-0	2	8	W
10/10	Skenderbeu Korce Albania Championship	2-0	2-0	2	6	W
18/09	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	1-0	2-0	5	4	W
12/09	FK Vora Albania Championship	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
05/09	Laci Albania Championship	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
30/08	KF Tirana Albania Championship	0-1	3-1	8	5	W
22/08	Partizani Tirana Albania Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
10/05	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	1-1	3-2	8	1	W
06/05	KS Flamurtari Vlore Albania Championship	0-1	1-1	3	11	D
02/05	KF Tirana Albania Championship	0-0	0-1	1	2	L

AF Elbasani

LWWDDLWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Skenderbeu Korce Albania Championship	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
10/10	FK Vora Albania Championship	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
20/09	KF Tirana Albania Championship	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
13/09	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	2-1	2-1	3	8	W
06/09	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
29/08	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
22/08	Laci Albania Championship	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
31/05	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
24/05	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	3-0	3-0	6	5	W
17/05	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	0-3	0-4	6	11	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Teuta Durres vs AF Elbasani?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Teuta Durres win (56%). Probabilities: Teuta Durres 56%, draw 26%, AF Elbasani 18%.

How many goals are expected in Teuta Durres vs AF Elbasani?

The model expects 2.39 goals (Teuta Durres 1.6 · AF Elbasani 0.79), with a 55% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Teuta Durres vs AF Elbasani?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.