Football · Albania Championship · 28/10, 18:30

Prediction: AF Elbasani vs Partizani Tirana

Team pages: AF Elbasani · Partizani Tirana

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

AF Elbasani1.68

Partizani Tirana0.95

1X2

54% 26% 20%

AF Elbasani Draw Partizani Tirana

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

AF Elbasani 3-5-2 (W-D-L)

WWDDLWDDLD

Partizani Tirana 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

LWDLWLLLLL

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani 2–2–2 Partizani Tirana (6 last)

AF Elbasani1-3Partizani Tirana
AF Elbasani3-0Partizani Tirana
Partizani Tirana1-2AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani0-1Partizani Tirana
Partizani Tirana2-2AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani0-0Partizani Tirana

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · AF Elbasani 1496 · Partizani Tirana 1442

	AF Elbasani	Draw	Partizani Tirana
Our model	53%	27%	20%
Market	54%	26%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours AF Elbasani (rating 1496 vs 1442).
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	AF Elbasani	Partizani Tirana
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.1	1.1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.1	2.1 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.50

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.02

Under 2.51.77

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Bet365 1.67
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
00:46 +22’	1.67	3.50	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · AF Elbasani 2–2–2 Partizani Tirana

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/08/26 Club Friendly List	AF Elbasani	1-3 HT 0-1	Partizani Tirana
13/04/26 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	3-0 HT 0-0	Partizani Tirana
04/03/26 Albania Cup	Partizani Tirana	1-2 HT 1-1	AF Elbasani
11/02/26 Albania Cup	AF Elbasani	0-1 HT 0-0	Partizani Tirana
31/01/26 Albania Championship	Partizani Tirana	2-2 HT 1-1	AF Elbasani
28/11/25 Albania Championship	AF Elbasani	0-0 HT 0-0	Partizani Tirana

Standings · Albania Championship

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Teuta Durres	8	6	2	0	14	2	20
2	FK Egnatia	8	6	0	2	17	8	18
3	FC Dinamo City	8	5	0	3	12	9	15
4	KF Tirana	8	3	2	3	12	12	11
5	Laci	8	3	1	4	8	11	10
6	Skenderbeu Korce	8	2	3	3	9	10	9
7	AF Elbasani	8	1	5	2	9	10	8
8	Vllaznia Shkoder	8	2	2	4	9	13	8
9	FK Vora	8	2	2	4	8	13	8
10	Partizani Tirana	8	1	1	6	9	19	4

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	AF Elbasani	Partizani Tirana
Teuta Durres	0-0 D	0-0 D
Skenderbeu Korce	1-2 L	0-2 L
FK Vora	1-1 D	1-4 L
KF Tirana	2-2 D	1-3 L
FK Egnatia	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Dinamo City	1-2 L	2-4 L
Vllaznia Shkoder	1-1 D	3-2 W
Laci	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 5 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: AF Elbasani (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

AF Elbasani

WWDDLWDDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Teuta Durres Albania Championship	0-0	0-0	1	4	D
17/10	Skenderbeu Korce Albania Championship	1-1	1-2	3	7	L
10/10	FK Vora Albania Championship	1-1	1-1	3	5	D
20/09	KF Tirana Albania Championship	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
13/09	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	2-1	2-1	3	8	W
06/09	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	1-1	1-2	1	4	L
29/08	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	0-1	1-1	2	5	D
22/08	Laci Albania Championship	0-0	1-1	2	1	D
31/05	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	0-0	2-1	4	3	W
24/05	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	3-0	3-0	6	5	W

Partizani Tirana

LWDLWLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Skenderbeu Korce Albania Championship	0-0	0-2	10	7	L
18/10	FK Vora Albania Championship	0-1	1-4	6	6	L
11/10	KF Tirana Albania Championship	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
20/09	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
12/09	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	1-3	2-4	8	5	L
05/09	Vllaznia Shkoder Albania Championship	2-1	3-2	2	3	W
29/08	Laci Albania Championship	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/08	Teuta Durres Albania Championship	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
10/05	FC Dinamo City Albania Championship	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
06/05	FK Egnatia Albania Championship	0-1	0-2	6	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in AF Elbasani vs Partizani Tirana?

According to our model, the most likely result is a AF Elbasani win (54%). Probabilities: AF Elbasani 54%, draw 26%, Partizani Tirana 20%.

How many goals are expected in AF Elbasani vs Partizani Tirana?

The model expects 2.63 goals (AF Elbasani 1.68 · Partizani Tirana 0.95), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in AF Elbasani vs Partizani Tirana?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.