Football · England National League North · 18/08, 20:45

Prediction: Bedford Town vs Buxton

Team pages: Bedford Town · Buxton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Bedford Town1.14

Buxton1.66

1X2

25% 26% 49%

Bedford Town Draw Buxton

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Bedford Town 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Buxton 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bedford Town 1–1 Buxton (2 last)

Buxton3-0Bedford Town
Bedford Town3-0Buxton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bedford Town 1463 · Buxton 1556

	Bedford Town	Draw	Buxton
Our model	25%	27%	48%
Market	26%	25%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Buxton (rating 1463 vs 1556).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bedford Town	Buxton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	44/22/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	2.1 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.9 / 0	2.9 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.60

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 2.88▼	Bet365 2.88
X	3.60 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	1.83 → 2.10▲	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
12:20 +9’	3.50	3.60	1.83
16:27 +1’	2.88▼	3.40▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bedford Town 1–0–1 Buxton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England National League North	Buxton	3-0 HT 3-0	Bedford Town
11/11/25 England National League North	Bedford Town	3-0 HT 0-0	Buxton

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Worksop	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Macclesfield	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
3	South Shields	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
5	Oxford City	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
6	Hebburn Town	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	Brackley	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Buxton	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Spennymoor Town	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Harborough Town	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
11	Merthyr Town	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
12	Spalding United	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
13	Darlington 1883	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
13	Scarborough Athletic	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
15	Hereford FC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
16	Morecambe	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Southport	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
18	Kings Lynn Town	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
19	AFC Telford	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Bedford Town	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Chorley	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
22	Marine	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
23	Hednesford	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
24	Radcliffe FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bedford Town	Buxton
Scarborough Athletic	1-1 D	4-2 W
South Shields	1-1 D	0-1 L
Hereford FC	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Buxton (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Bedford Town

DDDDWWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-2	2-3	10	3	L
08/08	Oxford City England National League North	0-0	0-1	5	5	L
01/08	Kettering Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
24/07	Real Bedford Club Friendly List	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
18/07	Walton & Hersham UK Friendlies	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
11/07	Berkhamsted UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	3	0	W
07/07	Aldershot UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
25/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	1	D
18/04	South Shields England National League North	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
11/04	Hereford FC England National League North	2-0	2-2	3	4	D

Buxton

DWWWLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-1	10	4	D
08/08	Hereford FC England National League North	1-0	2-1	5	6	W
21/07	Scunthorpe UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	8	2	W
10/07	Ashton Utd UK Friendlies	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
07/07	Braga Club Friendly List	–	1-3	–	–	L
02/05	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	1	2	L
28/04	Scarborough Athletic England National League North	0-0	4-2	6	4	W
25/04	Leamington England National League North	2-1	4-1	7	1	W
18/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	2-0	4-0	3	1	W
14/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	1-2	2-2	5	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bedford Town vs Buxton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Buxton win (49%). Probabilities: Bedford Town 25%, draw 26%, Buxton 49%.

How many goals are expected in Bedford Town vs Buxton?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Bedford Town 1.14 · Buxton 1.66), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Bedford Town vs Buxton?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.