Football · England National League North · 18/08, 20:45

Prediction: Hebburn Town vs Worksop

Team pages: Hebburn Town · Worksop

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Hebburn Town1.49

Worksop1.77

1X2

32% 25% 43%

Hebburn Town Draw Worksop

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Hebburn Town 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Worksop 9-1-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Hebburn Town 1–1 Worksop (2 last)

Hebburn Town2-3Worksop
Worksop2-4Hebburn Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hebburn Town 1547 · Worksop 1601

	Hebburn Town	Draw	Worksop
Our model	32%	25%	43%
Market	31%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Worksop (rating 1547 vs 1601).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hebburn Town	Worksop
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.4	2.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	1.2 / 0.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/56/11%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 3.8	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.88

2 (-0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
12:24 +5’	2.88	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hebburn Town 1–0–1 Worksop

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Hebburn Town	2-3	Worksop
19/10/24 England Northern Premier League	Worksop	2-4	Hebburn Town

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Worksop	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Macclesfield	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
3	South Shields	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
5	Oxford City	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
6	Hebburn Town	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	Brackley	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Buxton	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Spennymoor Town	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Harborough Town	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
11	Merthyr Town	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
12	Spalding United	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
13	Darlington 1883	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
13	Scarborough Athletic	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
15	Hereford FC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
16	Morecambe	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Southport	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
18	Kings Lynn Town	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
19	AFC Telford	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Bedford Town	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Chorley	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
22	Marine	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
23	Hednesford	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
24	Radcliffe FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Hebburn Town

WWWWDLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Brackley England National League North	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
08/08	Southport England National League North	2-0	3-1	1	4	W
01/08	Blyth Spartans UK Friendlies	2-2	4-2	5	0	W
25/07	Anstey Nomads Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
21/07	Hartlepool UK Friendlies	1-1	2-3	1	0	L
14/07	Gateshead UK Friendlies	0-1	3-3	0	0	D
04/07	Warrington Rylands UK Friendlies	3-0	5-0	10	0	W
25/04	Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	6	2	W
18/04	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	3	2	W
11/04	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	4-2	–	–	W

Worksop

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	AFC Telford England National League North	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
08/08	Darlington 1883 England National League North	1-0	2-1	2	2	W
01/08	Sheff Utd U23 Club Friendly List	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
28/07	Mickleover Sports Club Friendly List	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	Garforth Town Club Friendly List	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/07	Barnsley FC XI Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/07	South Normanton Athletic Club Friendly List	2-0	4-3	–	–	W
11/07	Ilkeston Club Friendly List	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
07/07	Retford FC Club Friendly List	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
04/07	Hallam UK Friendlies	3-1	4-2	9	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hebburn Town vs Worksop?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Worksop win (43%). Probabilities: Hebburn Town 32%, draw 25%, Worksop 43%.

How many goals are expected in Hebburn Town vs Worksop?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Hebburn Town 1.49 · Worksop 1.77), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hebburn Town vs Worksop?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.