Football · England National League North · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Marine vs Chorley
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.35Total
Marine1.19
Chorley1.16
1X2
Marine
Draw
Chorley
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Marine
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Chorley
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Marine
2–2–2
Chorley
(6 last)
- Marine2-1Chorley
- Chorley2-1Marine
- Chorley0-0Marine
- Chorley3-1Marine
- Marine3-0Chorley
- Marine1-1Chorley
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Marine 1519 · Chorley 1449
| Marine | Draw | Chorley | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 31% | 34% |
| Market | 36% | 28% | 35% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Marine (rating 1519 vs 1449).
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Marine | Chorley | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.2 | 0.7 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/70/10% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 5.8 | 1.1 / 2.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Marine 2–2–2 Chorley
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 England National League North | Marine | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Chorley |
| 30/12/25 England National League North | Chorley | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Marine |
| 12/04/25 England National League North | Chorley | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Marine |
| 16/11/24 England FA Trophy | Chorley | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Marine |
| 05/11/24 England National League North | Marine | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Chorley |
| 28/07/18 Club Friendly List | Marine | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Chorley |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Worksop | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | South Shields | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Oxford City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Hebburn Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Brackley | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Buxton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Spennymoor Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Harborough Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Darlington 1883 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Scarborough Athletic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Hereford FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Morecambe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Southport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Kings Lynn Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | AFC Telford | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Bedford Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Chorley | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 | Marine | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Hednesford | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Marine
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Hereford FC England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 08/08 | Macclesfield England National League North |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Bootle Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Warrington Town UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Prescot Cables Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Runcorn Linnets Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/07 | Colwyn Bay UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Blackburn U23 Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 21/04 | Hereford FC England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
Chorley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | South Shields England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Chester England National League North |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 25/07 | Accrington Stanley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 21/07 | Altrincham UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/07 | Bury Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Bamber Bridge Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 27/06 | Longridge Town FC Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Worksop England National League North |
2-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Kings Lynn Town England National League North |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 6 | D |
| 11/04 | Curzon Ashton England National League North |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 8 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Marine vs Chorley?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Marine win (36%). Probabilities: Marine 36%, draw 29%, Chorley 35%.
How many goals are expected in Marine vs Chorley?
The model expects 2.35 goals (Marine 1.19 · Chorley 1.16), with a 56% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Marine vs Chorley?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.