Football · England National League North · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford
Team pages: Merthyr Town · AFC Telford
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.23Total
Merthyr Town1.64
AFC Telford1.59
1X2
Merthyr Town
Draw
AFC Telford
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Merthyr Town
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
AFC Telford
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Merthyr Town
1–1
AFC Telford
(2 last)
- Merthyr Town1-4AFC Telford
- AFC Telford2-4Merthyr Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Merthyr Town 1478 · AFC Telford 1466
| Merthyr Town | Draw | AFC Telford | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| Market | 38% | 26% | 36% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Merthyr Town | AFC Telford | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.6 | 0.9 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.4 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.2 | 2.3 / 5.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.1 / 0.3 | 1.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Merthyr Town 1–0–1 AFC Telford
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/01/26 England National League North | Merthyr Town | 1-4 HT 0-2 | AFC Telford |
| 04/11/25 England National League North | AFC Telford | 2-4 HT 1-3 | Merthyr Town |
Standings · England National League North
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chester | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 2 | Worksop | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Macclesfield | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | South Shields | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Oxford City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 | Hebburn Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Brackley | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Buxton | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Spennymoor Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 10 | Harborough Town | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Merthyr Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 12 | Spalding United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Darlington 1883 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 13 | Scarborough Athletic | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Hereford FC | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Morecambe | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Southport | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Kings Lynn Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | AFC Telford | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Bedford Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 19 | Chorley | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 22 | Marine | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 23 | Hednesford | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| 24 | Radcliffe FC | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Merthyr Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Spennymoor Town England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Hednesford England National League North |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 01/08 | Worcester City UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 25/07 | Bristol City U21 Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Briton Ferry UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 3-0 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 18/07 | Forest Green UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 14/07 | Yeovil UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 10/07 | Cambrian United UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 4-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 25/04 | AFC Fylde England National League North |
1-0 | 2-4 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Scarborough Athletic England National League North |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
AFC Telford
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Worksop England National League North |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 08/08 | Brackley England National League North |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 01/08 | Tamworth UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Walsall UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 0 | W |
| 21/07 | Crewe UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Shifnal Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 11/07 | Nuneaton Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Southport England National League North |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Darlington 1883 England National League North |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 11/04 | Peterborough Sports England National League North |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Merthyr Town win (38%). Probabilities: Merthyr Town 38%, draw 26%, AFC Telford 36%.
How many goals are expected in Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford?
The model expects 3.23 goals (Merthyr Town 1.64 · AFC Telford 1.59), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Merthyr Town vs AFC Telford?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.