Football · England National League North · 18/08, 20:45

Prediction: Scarborough Athletic vs Spennymoor Town

Team pages: Scarborough Athletic · Spennymoor Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.58Total

Scarborough Athletic1.45

Spennymoor Town1.13

1X2

44% 28% 29%

Scarborough Athletic Draw Spennymoor Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Scarborough Athletic 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLWLLW

Spennymoor Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWWLLLWDW

Head-to-head

Scarborough Athletic 1–5–0 Spennymoor Town (6 last)

Scarborough Athletic1-0Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town1-1Scarborough Athletic
Spennymoor Town1-1Scarborough Athletic
Scarborough Athletic1-1Spennymoor Town
Scarborough Athletic1-1Spennymoor Town
Spennymoor Town1-1Scarborough Athletic

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Scarborough Athletic 1486 · Spennymoor Town 1512

	Scarborough Athletic	Draw	Spennymoor Town
Our model	43%	29%	28%
Market	44%	27%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Scarborough Athletic	Spennymoor Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.5	0.9 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.8	4.8 / 8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.2	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:24 +4’	2.05	3.40	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Scarborough Athletic 1–5–0 Spennymoor Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	1-0 HT 0-0	Spennymoor Town
30/12/25 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Scarborough Athletic
18/04/25 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	1-1 HT 0-0	Scarborough Athletic
01/01/25 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	1-1 HT 0-0	Spennymoor Town
06/04/24 England National League North	Scarborough Athletic	1-1 HT 1-0	Spennymoor Town
09/01/24 England National League North	Spennymoor Town	1-1 HT 0-0	Scarborough Athletic

Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Worksop	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Macclesfield	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
3	South Shields	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
5	Oxford City	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
6	Hebburn Town	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	Brackley	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Buxton	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Spennymoor Town	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Harborough Town	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
11	Merthyr Town	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
12	Spalding United	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
13	Darlington 1883	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
13	Scarborough Athletic	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
15	Hereford FC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
16	Morecambe	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Southport	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
18	Kings Lynn Town	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
19	AFC Telford	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Bedford Town	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Chorley	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
22	Marine	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
23	Hednesford	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
24	Radcliffe FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Scarborough Athletic

WLWDLLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Hednesford England National League North	1-1	4-3	3	6	W
08/08	South Shields England National League North	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
01/08	Harrogate Town UK Friendlies	1-0	1-2	1	0	L
28/07	Hull U21 UK Friendlies	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
25/07	Barnsley UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
28/04	Buxton England National League North	0-0	2-4	7	4	L
25/04	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-1	8	1	D
18/04	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
11/04	Buxton England National League North	0-1	0-2	4	6	L
06/04	Spennymoor Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	3	1	W

Spennymoor Town

WDWWLLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Merthyr Town England National League North	0-0	2-1	11	7	W
08/08	Morecambe England National League North	1-0	1-1	8	3	D
01/08	Gateshead Club Friendly List	2-0	2-1	–	–	W
25/07	Halifax Club Friendly List	0-1	1-3	–	–	L
21/07	Bishop Auckland Club Friendly List	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
18/07	Hartlepool Club Friendly List	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
14/07	Seaton Carew FC Club Friendly List	1-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/07	Blyth Spartans Club Friendly List	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
25/04	Marine England National League North	1-0	1-1	5	1	D
18/04	Macclesfield England National League North	2-0	2-0	8	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Scarborough Athletic vs Spennymoor Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Scarborough Athletic win (44%). Probabilities: Scarborough Athletic 44%, draw 28%, Spennymoor Town 29%.

How many goals are expected in Scarborough Athletic vs Spennymoor Town?

The model expects 2.58 goals (Scarborough Athletic 1.45 · Spennymoor Town 1.13), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Scarborough Athletic vs Spennymoor Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.