Football · England National League North · 18/08, 20:45

Prediction: Oxford City vs Harborough Town

Team pages: Oxford City · Harborough Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Oxford City1.42

Harborough Town1.23

1X2

40% 28% 32%

Oxford City Draw Harborough Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Oxford City 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Harborough Town 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Oxford City 1524 · Harborough Town 1563

	Oxford City	Draw	Harborough Town
Our model	40%	28%	31%
Market	41%	27%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 14.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Oxford City	Harborough Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	2.1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	17/50/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.1	3.6 / 9.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.30

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.80 → 2.60▼	Bet365 2.60

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
12:18 +9’	2.20	3.30	2.80
16:14 +11’	2.35▲	3.30	2.60▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England National League North

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chester	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
2	Worksop	2	2	0	0	4	2	6
3	Macclesfield	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
3	South Shields	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
5	Oxford City	2	2	0	0	2	0	6
6	Hebburn Town	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
7	Brackley	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Buxton	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Spennymoor Town	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
10	Harborough Town	2	1	1	0	2	1	4
11	Merthyr Town	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
12	Spalding United	2	1	0	1	2	1	3
13	Darlington 1883	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
13	Scarborough Athletic	2	1	0	1	4	4	3
15	Hereford FC	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
16	Morecambe	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	Southport	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
18	Kings Lynn Town	2	0	1	1	1	3	1
19	AFC Telford	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Bedford Town	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
19	Chorley	2	0	0	2	2	4	0
22	Marine	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
23	Hednesford	2	0	0	2	3	6	0
24	Radcliffe FC	2	0	0	2	1	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Oxford City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Spalding United England National League North	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
08/08	Bedford Town England National League North	0-0	1-0	4	5	W
01/08	Chesham Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
28/07	Slough UK Friendlies	0-1	1-2	6	0	L
25/07	Walton & Hersham UK Friendlies	1-0	1-2	9	1	L
14/07	Hemel Hempstead Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/07	Briton Ferry UK Friendlies	2-0	4-0	6	1	W
25/04	Darlington 1883 England National League North	2-0	3-1	4	10	W
18/04	Chester England National League North	0-2	1-2	4	6	L
14/04	Hereford FC England National League North	0-1	2-1	5	9	W

Harborough Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Morecambe England National League North	0-0	1-0	8	4	W
08/08	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	1-0	1-1	11	3	D
25/07	Quorn UK Friendlies	0-1	2-2	6	0	D
18/07	Chesham Club Friendly List	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
11/07	Real Bedford UK Friendlies	2-2	4-4	11	1	D
25/04	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/04	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-1	–	–	W
03/04	St Ives Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-1	10	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Oxford City vs Harborough Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Oxford City win (40%). Probabilities: Oxford City 40%, draw 28%, Harborough Town 32%.

How many goals are expected in Oxford City vs Harborough Town?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Oxford City 1.42 · Harborough Town 1.23), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Oxford City vs Harborough Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.