Football · Türkiye Super Lig · 16/08, 18:00
Prediction: Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kocaelispor
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.48Total
Istanbul Basaksehir1.8
Kocaelispor0.68
1X2
Istanbul Basaksehir
Draw
Kocaelispor
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 51%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Istanbul Basaksehir
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Kocaelispor
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Istanbul Basaksehir
1–1–0
Kocaelispor
(2 last)
- Kocaelispor0-0Istanbul Basaksehir
- Istanbul Basaksehir1-0Kocaelispor
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Istanbul Basaksehir 1550 · Kocaelispor 1440
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Draw | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 63% | 24% | 13% |
| Market | 63% | 23% | 13% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.48 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Istanbul Basaksehir (rating 1550 vs 1440).
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Istanbul Basaksehir | Kocaelispor | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.2 | 0.5 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 5.2 | 1.8 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.2 | 4.3 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Istanbul Basaksehir 1–1–0 Kocaelispor
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 06/04/26 Türkiye Super Lig | Kocaelispor | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Istanbul Basaksehir |
| 31/10/25 Türkiye Super Lig | Istanbul Basaksehir | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Kocaelispor |
Standings · Türkiye Super Lig
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alanyaspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Amedspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Besiktas | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Caykur Rizespor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Corum Belediyespor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Erzurumspor FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Eyupspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Fenerbahce | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Galatasaray | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Genclerbirligi | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Goztepe | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Istanbul Basaksehir | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kasimpasa | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Kocaelispor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Konyaspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Samsunspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Trabzonspor | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Istanbul Basaksehir
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | FC Inter UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 22/07 | FC Inter UEFA Conference League Qualifying |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 3 | D |
| 16/07 | Puskas Academy Europe Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 15/07 | FC Salzburg Europe Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 06/07 | Cracovia Krakow Europe Friendlies |
1-2 | 1-3 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Gazisehir Gaziantep FK Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Samsunspor Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Fenerbahce Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 24/04 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | Trabzonspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
Kocaelispor
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05 | Antalyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 12 | L |
| 09/05 | Fatih Karagumruk Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 03/05 | Kasimpasa Türkiye Super Lig |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 1 | D |
| 26/04 | Genclerbirligi Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Goztepe Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 12 | D |
| 12/04 | Galatasaray Türkiye Super Lig |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 06/04 | Istanbul Basaksehir Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 18/03 | Alanyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 14/03 | Konyaspor Türkiye Super Lig |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/03 | Eyupspor Türkiye Super Lig |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kocaelispor?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Istanbul Basaksehir win (63%). Probabilities: Istanbul Basaksehir 63%, draw 24%, Kocaelispor 13%.
How many goals are expected in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kocaelispor?
The model expects 2.48 goals (Istanbul Basaksehir 1.8 · Kocaelispor 0.68), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kocaelispor?
The model gives a 51% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.