Football · France Division 1 Women · 24/10, 21:00
Prediction: Lyon (W) vs Marseille (W)
Team pages: Lyon (W) · Marseille (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.69Total
Lyon (W)3.34
Marseille (W)1.34
1X2
Lyon (W)
Draw
Marseille (W)
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
3-1 8%
Recent form · 10 last
Lyon (W)
9-1-0 (W-D-L)
Marseille (W)
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Lyon (W)
6–0
Marseille (W)
(6 last)
- Marseille (W)2-6Lyon (W)
- Marseille (W)1-5Lyon (W)
- Lyon (W)3-1Marseille (W)
- Marseille (W)0-8Lyon (W)
- Lyon (W)9-1Marseille (W)
- Lyon (W)6-0Marseille (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Lyon (W) 1675 · Marseille (W) 1492
| Lyon (W) | Draw | Marseille (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| Market | 94% | 4% | 2% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.69 goals · Bet365 line 4.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 80%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lyon (W) (rating 1675 vs 1492).
- H2H favours Lyon (W): 6-0-0.
- High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Lyon (W) | Marseille (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 5.2 / 0.5 | 1.2 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 2.5 / 0.1 | 0.5 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 90/10/0% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 4.3 / 7.3 | 1.4 / 4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0 | 3.4 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Lyon (W) 6–0–0 Marseille (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/02/26 France Division 1 Women | Marseille (W) | 2-6 HT 0-2 | Lyon (W) |
| 24/01/26 France Cup Women | Marseille (W) | 1-5 HT 0-3 | Lyon (W) |
| 07/09/25 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Marseille (W) |
| 08/02/20 France Division 1 Women | Marseille (W) | 0-8 HT 0-2 | Lyon (W) |
| 12/01/20 France Cup Women | Lyon (W) | 9-1 HT 4-1 | Marseille (W) |
| 24/08/19 France Division 1 Women | Lyon (W) | 6-0 HT 3-0 | Marseille (W) |
Standings · France Division 1 Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lyon (W) | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 15 |
| 2 | Paris FC (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 8 | 12 |
| 3 | PSG (W) | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 12 |
| 4 | Marseille (W) | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Strasbourg (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 7 |
| 6 | Le Havre (W) | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 11 | 7 |
| 7 | Montpellier (W) | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Nantes (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 5 |
| 9 | FC Fleury 91 (W) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 5 |
| 10 | Saint Malo (W) | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 3 |
| 11 | Lens (W) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 13 | 1 |
| 12 | Toulouse (W) | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 18 | 1 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Lyon (W) | Marseille (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Le Havre (W) | 8-1 W | 1-0 W |
| FC Fleury 91 (W) | 7-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Nantes (W) | 8-0 W | 0-2 L |
| Montpellier (W) | 3-1 W | 0-0 D |
| Dijon (W) | 4-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 5 W 0 D 0 L | 1 W 2 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Lyon (W) (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Lyon (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10 | PSG (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 03/10 | Toulouse (W) France Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 18/09 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
4-0 | 8-1 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 12/09 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 7-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
| 04/09 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
6-1 | 7-1 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 29/05 | Paris FC (W) France Division 1 Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 16/05 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 8-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/05 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 3-1 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 29/04 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 22/04 | Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
Marseille (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10 | FC Fleury 91 (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 03/10 | Strasbourg (W) France Division 1 Women |
2-1 | 3-3 | 4 | 1 | D |
| 19/09 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 12/09 | Lens (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/09 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 06/05 | Dijon (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Lens (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 22/04 | Nantes (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 28/03 | Montpellier (W) France Division 1 Women |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/03 | Le Havre (W) France Division 1 Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Lyon (W) vs Marseille (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Lyon (W) win (85%). Probabilities: Lyon (W) 85%, draw 8%, Marseille (W) 6%.
How many goals are expected in Lyon (W) vs Marseille (W)?
The model expects 4.69 goals (Lyon (W) 3.34 · Marseille (W) 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 4.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Lyon (W) vs Marseille (W)?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.