Football · France Division 1 Women · 03/10, 21:00

Prediction: Paris FC (W) vs Lens (W)

Team pages: Paris FC (W) · Lens (W)

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Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.46Total
Paris FC (W)2.73
Lens (W)0.73
1X2
79% 14% 7%
Paris FC (W) Draw Lens (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
2-0 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Paris FC (W) 8-0-2 (W-D-L)
WWWWWWLWLW
Lens (W) 2-1-7 (W-D-L)
LWLLWLLLLD
Head-to-head
Paris FC (W) 4–0 Lens (W) (4 last)
  • Paris FC (W)6-2Lens (W)
  • Lens (W)0-2Paris FC (W)
  • Lens (W)1-2Paris FC (W)
  • Paris FC (W)4-0Lens (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Paris FC (W) 1557 · Lens (W) 1459
Paris FC (W)DrawLens (W)
Our model79%15%7%
Market79%14%7%
Estimated total (ours) 3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Paris FC (W) (rating 1557 vs 1459).
  • H2H favours Paris FC (W): 4-0-0.
  • Cards-heavy: 7.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Paris FC (W)Lens (W)
Goals for / against (FT)2.1 / 1.60.9 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)0.9 / 0.80.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)40/40/20%10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)2.6 / 4.91.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)3.8 / 04 / 0

Head-to-head (H2H) · Paris FC (W) 4–0–0 Lens (W)

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DateHomeScoreAway
06/05/26
France Division 1 Women
Paris FC (W)6-2
HT 2-2
Lens (W)
10/01/26
France Cup Women
Lens (W)0-2
HT 0-1
Paris FC (W)
07/11/25
France Division 1 Women
Lens (W)1-2
HT 1-0
Paris FC (W)
14/02/24
France Cup Women
Paris FC (W)4-0
HT 0-0
Lens (W)

Standings · France Division 1 Women

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 Lyon (W) 3300 2239
2 PSG (W) 3300 509
3 Marseille (W) 3210 317
4 Paris FC (W) 3201 576
5 Montpellier (W) 3111 524
6 FC Fleury 91 (W) 3111 484
7 Strasbourg (W) 3102 363
8 Le Havre (W) 3102 3103
9 Saint Malo (W) 3102 353
10 Lens (W) 3012 361
11 Toulouse (W) 3012 491
12 Nantes (W) 3012 141

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentParis FC (W)Lens (W)
PSG (W) 1-0 W 0-2 L
Dijon (W) 2-1 W 0-1 L
Montpellier (W) 2-0 W 2-1 W
St Etienne (W) 3-0 W 1-2 L
Record vs common 4 W 0 D 0 L 1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Paris FC (W) (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Paris FC (W)

WWWWWWLWLW

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
18/09 Strasbourg (W)
France Division 1 Women
1-0 2-0 51 W
12/09 Lyon (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-2 1-7 64 L
06/09 Nantes (W)
France Division 1 Women
2-0 2-0 95 W
29/05 Lyon (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-3 0-5 03 L
16/05 PSG (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-0 1-0 43 W
06/05 Lens (W)
France Division 1 Women
2-2 6-2 94 W
25/04 Dijon (W)
France Division 1 Women
2-0 2-1 34 W
22/04 Montpellier (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-0 2-0 –– W
28/03 FC Fleury 91 (W)
France Division 1 Women
1-1 2-1 66 W
21/03 St Etienne (W)
France Division 1 Women
1-0 3-0 24 W

Lens (W)

LWLLWLLLLD

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
19/09 Toulouse (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-2 2-2 –– D
12/09 Marseille (W)
France Division 1 Women
1-1 1-2 –– L
05/09 PSG (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-1 0-2 –– L
06/05 Paris FC (W)
France Division 1 Women
2-2 2-6 44 L
25/04 Marseille (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-0 0-1 95 L
22/04 Le Havre (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-0 1-0 23 W
28/03 St Etienne (W)
France Division 1 Women
1-1 1-2 04 L
22/03 Dijon (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-1 0-1 52 L
11/03 Montpellier (W)
France Division 1 Women
2-1 2-1 37 W
20/02 PSG (W)
France Division 1 Women
0-2 0-3 23 L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Paris FC (W) vs Lens (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Paris FC (W) win (79%). Probabilities: Paris FC (W) 79%, draw 14%, Lens (W) 7%.

How many goals are expected in Paris FC (W) vs Lens (W)?

The model expects 3.46 goals (Paris FC (W) 2.73 · Lens (W) 0.73), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Paris FC (W) vs Lens (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.