Football · Danish Womens Elitedivisionen · 04/10, 14:00

Prediction: FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs HB Koge (W)

Team pages: FC Nordsjaelland (W) · HB Koge (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.68Total

FC Nordsjaelland (W)1.84

HB Koge (W)1.84

1X2

38% 24% 38%

FC Nordsjaelland (W) Draw HB Koge (W)

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Nordsjaelland (W) 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LLDWWWWWWD

HB Koge (W) 9-0-1 (W-D-L)

WWWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1–3–2 HB Koge (W) (6 last)

HB Koge (W)4-6FC Nordsjaelland (W)
FC Nordsjaelland (W)1-4HB Koge (W)
FC Nordsjaelland (W)1-1HB Koge (W)
HB Koge (W)3-3FC Nordsjaelland (W)
HB Koge (W)2-2FC Nordsjaelland (W)
FC Nordsjaelland (W)2-3HB Koge (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1577 · HB Koge (W) 1621

	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	Draw	HB Koge (W)
Our model	38%	23%	38%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.68 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours HB Koge (W) (rating 1577 vs 1621).
H2H favours HB Koge (W): 2-3-1.
High corners: 16.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	HB Koge (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	3 / 1.1	3.1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.5	1.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	80/20/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 7.3	3.9 / 8.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0.1	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.75

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:58 +10’	2.38	3.75	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1–3–2 HB Koge (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
05/09/26 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	HB Koge (W)	4-6 HT 2-2	FC Nordsjaelland (W)
16/05/26 Denmark Cup Women	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	1-4 HT 0-2	HB Koge (W)
03/05/26 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	1-1 HT 0-0	HB Koge (W)
14/03/26 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	HB Koge (W)	3-3 HT 0-1	FC Nordsjaelland (W)
15/11/25 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	HB Koge (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	FC Nordsjaelland (W)
29/09/25 Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	2-3 HT 2-0	HB Koge (W)

Standings · Danish Womens Elitedivisionen

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	HB Koge (W)	9	8	0	1	28	9	24
2	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	9	6	2	1	30	10	20
3	Brondby (W)	9	5	2	2	23	7	17
4	Midtjylland (W)	9	5	2	2	15	12	17
5	Fortuna Hjørring (W)	9	4	2	3	20	12	14
6	ASA Aarhus (W)	9	3	1	5	11	19	10
7	Odense BK (W)	9	3	1	5	6	18	10
8	Kolding IF (W)	9	3	0	6	18	28	9
9	FC Copenhagen (W)	9	2	0	7	11	31	6
10	AGF (W)	9	1	0	8	6	22	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Nordsjaelland (W)	HB Koge (W)
Fortuna Hjørring (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
AGF (W)	2-0 W	2-0 W
Midtjylland (W)	4-1 W	4-0 W
Kolding IF (W)	4-0 W	4-1 W
FC Copenhagen (W)	9-1 W	3-0 W
ASA Aarhus (W)	3-1 W	4-0 W
Brondby (W)	1-1 D	2-1 W
Odense BK (W)	0-1 L	3-0 W
Record vs common	5 W 2 D 1 L	8 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: HB Koge (W) (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Nordsjaelland (W)

LLDWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-0	1-1	9	1	D
22/09	AGF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	2-0	7	2	W
15/09	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-1	4-1	9	0	W
05/09	HB Koge (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-2	6-4	7	7	W
01/09	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	4-0	8	4	W
23/08	FC Copenhagen (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	6-0	9-1	8	2	W
15/08	ASA Aarhus (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	3-1	2	0	W
01/08	Brondby (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
26/07	Odense BK (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-1	12	1	L
13/06	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	0-1	0-1	7	2	L

HB Koge (W)

WWWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
19/09	Midtjylland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	4-0	9	1	W
12/09	Fortuna Hjørring (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-1	2-1	6	1	W
05/09	FC Nordsjaelland (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-2	4-6	6	7	L
29/08	AGF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
19/08	Brondby (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	1-0	2-1	10	3	W
15/08	Odense BK (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	3-0	6	2	W
01/08	ASA Aarhus (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	3-0	4-0	23	0	W
28/07	FC Copenhagen (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	2-0	3-0	7	1	W
13/06	Kolding IF (W) Danish Womens Elitedivisionen	3-0	3-1	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs HB Koge (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Nordsjaelland (W) win (38%). Probabilities: FC Nordsjaelland (W) 38%, draw 24%, HB Koge (W) 38%.

How many goals are expected in FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs HB Koge (W)?

The model expects 3.68 goals (FC Nordsjaelland (W) 1.84 · HB Koge (W) 1.84), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Nordsjaelland (W) vs HB Koge (W)?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.