Football · Germany 3. Liga · 13/10, 19:00

Prediction: Saarbrucken vs MSV Duisburg

Team pages: Saarbrucken · MSV Duisburg

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Saarbrucken1.8

MSV Duisburg1.73

1X2

39% 24% 36%

Saarbrucken Draw MSV Duisburg

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Saarbrucken 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLDWD

MSV Duisburg 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWLWWW

Head-to-head

Saarbrucken 0–3–3 MSV Duisburg (6 last)

MSV Duisburg4-2Saarbrucken
Saarbrucken0-0MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg2-0Saarbrucken
Saarbrucken0-0MSV Duisburg
MSV Duisburg2-2Saarbrucken
Saarbrucken2-3MSV Duisburg

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours MSV Duisburg (rating 1513 vs 1557).
H2H favours MSV Duisburg: 3-3-0.
High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Saarbrucken	MSV Duisburg
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.9	2.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 7	3.2 / 7.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	4.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.83

Under 2.751.97

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:57

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.57 → 2.54▼	Pinn 2.54
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 3.70
2	2.46 → 2.49▲	Pinn 2.49

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
17:43 +74’	2.57	3.70	2.46
19:22 +154’	2.54▼	3.70	2.49▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

Our recommendation on this match 1 odds move recorded

Go premium to see the odds journey

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Saarbrucken 0–3–3 MSV Duisburg

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Date	Home	Score	Away
08/03/26 Germany 3. Liga	MSV Duisburg	4-2 HT 1-1	Saarbrucken
30/09/25 Germany 3. Liga	Saarbrucken	0-0 HT 0-0	MSV Duisburg
16/03/24 Germany 3. Liga	MSV Duisburg	2-0 HT 1-0	Saarbrucken
29/11/23 Germany 3. Liga	Saarbrucken	0-0 HT 0-0	MSV Duisburg
21/05/23 Germany 3. Liga	MSV Duisburg	2-2 HT 2-1	Saarbrucken
14/01/23 Germany 3. Liga	Saarbrucken	2-3 HT 0-2	MSV Duisburg

Standings · Germany 3. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	MSV Duisburg	7	6	0	1	19	7	18
2	FC Viktoria Köln	7	5	0	2	19	9	15
3	Rot-Weiss Essen	8	4	3	1	16	12	15
4	Saarbrucken	7	4	1	2	19	12	13
5	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	7	4	1	2	14	8	13
6	Hansa Rostock	7	3	3	1	15	15	12
7	SC Preussen Munster	8	3	3	2	15	16	12
8	Alemannia Aachen	7	3	2	2	11	8	11
9	Waldhof Mannheim	7	3	1	3	11	10	10
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	7	3	1	3	6	7	10
11	Verl	7	3	1	3	10	13	10
12	SC Fortuna Köln	7	2	3	2	8	8	9
13	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	7	2	2	3	6	9	8
14	FC Ingolstadt	7	2	2	3	7	11	8
15	VfB Stuttgart II	7	2	1	4	12	15	7
16	Wurzburger Kickers	7	2	1	4	11	15	7
17	SV Meppen	7	2	0	5	8	15	6
18	Jahn Regensburg	7	1	2	4	13	17	5
19	Wehen SV	7	1	2	4	5	13	5
20	TSV Havelse	7	1	1	5	10	15	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Saarbrucken	MSV Duisburg
SV Meppen	6-1 W	3-0 W
Jahn Regensburg	1-0 W	2-1 W
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II	2-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Saarbrucken

LLWWLWLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	SC Fortuna Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
19/09	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	9	6	W
16/09	SC Preussen Munster Germany 3. Liga	3-1	3-3	11	1	D
12/09	FC Ingolstadt Germany 3. Liga	0-1	0-1	7	5	L
05/09	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	3-1	6-1	6	2	W
30/08	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-4	5	7	L
16/08	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-0	10	5	W
09/08	Rot-Weiss Essen Germany 3. Liga	2-2	5-2	4	7	W
16/05	Hansa Rostock Germany 3. Liga	0-2	3-4	9	6	L
10/05	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	0-2	2-3	6	1	L

MSV Duisburg

DDWWWWLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	TSG 1899 Hoffenheim II Germany 3. Liga	0-2	3-2	3	9	W
20/09	Wehen SV Germany 3. Liga	3-1	4-1	8	3	W
15/09	TSV Havelse Germany 3. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
12/09	Fortuna Dusseldorf Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-2	6	3	L
05/09	Jahn Regensburg Germany 3. Liga	0-0	2-1	5	9	W
29/08	Wurzburger Kickers Germany 3. Liga	2-0	3-0	2	7	W
15/08	Verl Germany 3. Liga	0-1	4-2	11	5	W
08/08	SV Meppen Germany 3. Liga	1-0	3-0	10	4	W
16/05	FC Viktoria Köln Germany 3. Liga	0-0	1-1	13	4	D
08/05	Erzgebirge Aue Germany 3. Liga	0-0	0-0	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Saarbrucken vs MSV Duisburg?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Saarbrucken win (39%). Probabilities: Saarbrucken 39%, draw 24%, MSV Duisburg 36%.

How many goals are expected in Saarbrucken vs MSV Duisburg?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Saarbrucken 1.8 · MSV Duisburg 1.73), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Saarbrucken vs MSV Duisburg?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.