Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 01/11, 14:00

Prediction: Turnov vs Dvur Kralove

Team pages: Turnov · Dvur Kralove

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Turnov2.42

Dvur Kralove1.18

1X2

64% 20% 16%

Turnov Draw Dvur Kralove

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Turnov 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Dvur Kralove 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Turnov 1552 · Dvur Kralove 1467

	Turnov	Draw	Dvur Kralove
Our model	64%	20%	16%
Market	64%	20%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Turnov (rating 1552 vs 1467).
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Turnov	Dvur Kralove
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.7	0.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.4	0.3 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6.4	2.5 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	4.9 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.80

2 (+1.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 03:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
03:22 +7’	1.40	4.50	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	12	10	0	2	40	15	30
2	Kravare	12	8	3	1	28	13	27
3	FC Vratimov	12	9	0	3	25	17	27
4	Hlucin	13	7	2	4	24	18	23
5	TJ Valasske Mezirici	12	5	4	3	25	19	19
6	Opava B	12	6	1	5	27	23	19
7	SK Zabreh	12	5	3	4	16	14	18
8	Jiskra Rymarov	12	5	2	5	27	20	17
9	SK Stonava	12	5	2	5	22	22	17
10	TJ Novy Jicin	12	4	3	5	18	22	15
11	FK Sumperk	13	3	5	5	17	19	14
12	Pusta Polom	12	4	2	6	20	24	14
13	Frydek Mistek B	12	4	1	7	23	27	13
14	Bridlicna	12	3	1	8	16	27	10
15	SSK Bilovec	12	2	3	7	9	26	9
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	12	1	0	11	13	44	3

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Turnov	Dvur Kralove
SK Sparta Kolin	2-1 W	2-2 D
Spartak Police Nad Metuji	5-3 W	0-6 L
SK Kosmonosy	4-1 W	2-1 W
FK Chlumec N.C	0-1 L	0-0 D
SK Vysoke Myto	0-2 L	0-2 L
FK Prepere	2-5 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Turnov (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Turnov

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Hlinsko Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
18/10	FC Slavia HK Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	7	2	W
10/10	Letohrad Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
04/10	MFK Chrudim B Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	4-1	11	5	W
27/09	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	2-1	7	4	W
20/09	Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	5-3	–	–	W
13/09	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	4-1	7	5	W
06/09	FK Chlumec N.C Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/08	SK Vysoke Myto Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	FK Prepere Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-5	4	4	L

Dvur Kralove

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/10	Spartak Police Nad Metuji Czechia 4. Liga	0-4	0-6	4	6	L
17/10	SK Kosmonosy Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
11/10	FK Chlumec N.C Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
03/10	SK Vysoke Myto Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
27/09	FK Prepere Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
19/09	FK Trutnov Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
13/09	Usti N Orlici Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	9	6	L
05/09	Cechie Vykan Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-2	3	6	L
30/08	TJ Svitavy Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-0	8	3	W
23/08	SK Sparta Kolin Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-2	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Turnov vs Dvur Kralove?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Turnov win (64%). Probabilities: Turnov 64%, draw 20%, Dvur Kralove 16%.

How many goals are expected in Turnov vs Dvur Kralove?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Turnov 2.42 · Dvur Kralove 1.18), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Turnov vs Dvur Kralove?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.