Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 22/08, 10:15

Prediction: FC Kurim vs AFC Humpolec

Team pages: FC Kurim · AFC Humpolec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

FC Kurim2.42

AFC Humpolec1.48

1X2

57% 21% 22%

FC Kurim Draw AFC Humpolec

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Kurim 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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AFC Humpolec 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWWDLD

Head-to-head

FC Kurim 4–0 AFC Humpolec (4 last)

AFC Humpolec1-3FC Kurim
FC Kurim4-0AFC Humpolec
FC Kurim2-0AFC Humpolec
AFC Humpolec0-1FC Kurim

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Kurim 1513 · AFC Humpolec 1466

	FC Kurim	Draw	AFC Humpolec
Our model	58%	20%	22%
Market	57%	21%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Kurim (rating 1513 vs 1466).
H2H favours FC Kurim: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Kurim	AFC Humpolec
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 2	1.7 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.6	0.9 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	44/11/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5.3	2.7 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.1	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.57

X4.20

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.90

2 (+1)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 06:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.57	Bet365 1.57
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
06:47 +2’	1.57	4.20	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Kurim 4–0–0 AFC Humpolec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 Czechia 4. Liga	AFC Humpolec	1-3 HT 0-0	FC Kurim
09/08/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Kurim	4-0 HT 1-0	AFC Humpolec
29/03/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FC Kurim	2-0 HT 2-0	AFC Humpolec
24/08/24 Czechia 4. Liga	AFC Humpolec	0-1 HT 0-1	FC Kurim

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	2	2	0	0	6	2	6
2	Kravare	2	2	0	0	5	2	6
3	SK Zabreh	2	2	0	0	4	1	6
4	Opava B	2	1	1	0	4	2	4
5	TJ Novy Jicin	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
5	FK Sumperk	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	FC Vratimov	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
7	Pusta Polom	2	1	0	1	4	3	3
9	Jiskra Rymarov	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
10	Hlucin	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
11	SK Stonava	2	0	1	1	3	4	1
12	SSK Bilovec	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
13	TJ Valasske Mezirici	2	0	1	1	2	4	1
14	Frydek Mistek B	2	0	0	2	2	5	0
15	Bridlicna	2	0	0	2	2	6	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	2	0	0	2	0	4	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Kurim

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	SK Prostejov Czechia Cup	0-3	0-7	2	3	L
08/08	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	3-1	8-1	3	3	W
01/08	TJ Sokol Lanzhot Club Friendly List	0-1	0-3	5	3	L
26/07	SK Zdirec Nad Doubravou Czechia Cup	0-0	1-1	6	7	D
18/07	SK Olympia Rajecko Club Friendly List	2-0	3-3	12	0	D
13/06	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
06/06	Sparta Brno Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-1	3	4	W
30/05	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
23/05	FK Pelhrimov Czechia 4. Liga	4-0	8-1	–	–	W

AFC Humpolec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-2	8	3	D
12/08	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia Cup	–	0-2	–	–	L
07/08	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
26/07	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia Cup	1-1	3-1	2	4	W
13/06	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
05/06	SK Artis Brno B Czechia 4. Liga	0-5	1-5	2	4	L
30/05	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
16/05	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
10/05	TJ Dalnice Sperice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Kurim vs AFC Humpolec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Kurim win (57%). Probabilities: FC Kurim 57%, draw 21%, AFC Humpolec 22%.

How many goals are expected in FC Kurim vs AFC Humpolec?

The model expects 3.9 goals (FC Kurim 2.42 · AFC Humpolec 1.48), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Kurim vs AFC Humpolec?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.