Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: FK Bohumin vs Pusta Polom

Team pages: FK Bohumin · Pusta Polom

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.04Total

FK Bohumin2.84

Pusta Polom1.19

1X2

70% 17% 12%

FK Bohumin Draw Pusta Polom

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

FK Bohumin 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LLWLWWWWWW

Pusta Polom 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DDLLDWWWLD

Head-to-head

FK Bohumin 4–0 Pusta Polom (4 last)

FK Bohumin3-1Pusta Polom
Pusta Polom4-6FK Bohumin
FK Bohumin3-1Pusta Polom
Pusta Polom1-5FK Bohumin

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FK Bohumin 1577 · Pusta Polom 1493

	FK Bohumin	Draw	Pusta Polom
Our model	71%	16%	13%
Market	70%	18%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 4.04 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FK Bohumin (rating 1577 vs 1493).
H2H favours FK Bohumin: 4-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FK Bohumin	Pusta Polom
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.6	1.6 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 5.1	2.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X5.00

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.90

2 (+1.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.28 → 1.28	Bet365 1.28
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	7.50 → 7.50	Bet365 7.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
08:41 +4’	1.28	5.00	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FK Bohumin 4–0–0 Pusta Polom

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Bohumin	3-1 HT 1-1	Pusta Polom
09/08/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Pusta Polom	4-6 HT 2-4	FK Bohumin
08/06/25 Czechia 4. Liga	FK Bohumin	3-1 HT 3-1	Pusta Polom
02/11/24 Czechia 4. Liga	Pusta Polom	1-5 HT 1-3	FK Bohumin

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Kravare	4	4	0	0	15	4	12
2	FK Bohumin	3	3	0	0	11	2	9
3	SK Zabreh	3	2	1	0	6	3	7
4	Opava B	4	2	1	1	9	7	7
5	Jiskra Rymarov	3	2	0	1	7	3	6
6	Hlucin	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
6	FC Vratimov	3	2	0	1	6	3	6
8	SK Stonava	3	1	1	1	6	4	4
9	Pusta Polom	3	1	1	1	6	5	4
10	TJ Novy Jicin	3	1	1	1	5	7	4
11	FK Sumperk	3	1	1	1	3	5	4
12	Bridlicna	4	1	0	3	5	11	3
13	TJ Valasske Mezirici	3	0	1	2	2	6	1
14	SSK Bilovec	4	0	1	3	3	11	1
15	Frydek Mistek B	3	0	0	3	2	9	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	3	0	0	3	2	11	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FK Bohumin	Pusta Polom
TJ Valasske Mezirici	5-3 W	1-3 L
FK Sumperk	6-3 W	0-1 L
MFK Havirov	3-2 W	1-1 D
FK Petrvald na Morave	2-3 L	2-2 D
Opava B	1-2 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FK Bohumin (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FK Bohumin

LLWLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	5-0	6	2	W
16/08	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	4-2	6	7	W
07/08	Hlucin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	2-0	2	4	W
12/06	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	3-0	5-3	6	4	W
07/06	FK Sumperk Czechia 4. Liga	3-2	6-3	–	–	W
31/05	MFK Havirov Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-2	–	–	W
23/05	FK Petrvald na Morave Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	2-3	–	–	L
17/05	Bridlicna Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	4-0	5	6	W
10/05	SSK Bilovec Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
03/05	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	1-2	5	4	L

Pusta Polom

DDLLDWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	SK Zabreh Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
16/08	Opava B Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-3	3	4	L
09/08	Frydlant Nad Ostravici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
13/06	Jiskra Rymarov Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
07/06	FC Irp Cesky Tesin Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	3-2	–	–	W
31/05	TJ Novy Jicin Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
23/05	TJ Valasske Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-3	–	–	L
17/05	FK Sumperk Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
10/05	MFK Havirov Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
01/05	FK Petrvald na Morave Czechia 4. Liga	2-1	2-2	8	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FK Bohumin vs Pusta Polom?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FK Bohumin win (70%). Probabilities: FK Bohumin 70%, draw 17%, Pusta Polom 12%.

How many goals are expected in FK Bohumin vs Pusta Polom?

The model expects 4.04 goals (FK Bohumin 2.84 · Pusta Polom 1.19), with a 54% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FK Bohumin vs Pusta Polom?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.