Football · Czechia 4. Liga · 05/09, 10:30

Prediction: Sparta Brno vs AFC Humpolec

Team pages: Sparta Brno · AFC Humpolec

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Sparta Brno2.01

AFC Humpolec1.52

1X2

49% 23% 29%

Sparta Brno Draw AFC Humpolec

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sparta Brno 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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AFC Humpolec 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sparta Brno 1–1–0 AFC Humpolec (2 last)

AFC Humpolec2-3Sparta Brno
Sparta Brno1-1AFC Humpolec

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sparta Brno 1472 · AFC Humpolec 1443

	Sparta Brno	Draw	AFC Humpolec
Our model	48%	23%	28%
Market	49%	22%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sparta Brno	AFC Humpolec
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.2	1.4 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.7 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.9	2.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	3.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.00

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
04:36 +12’	1.83	4.00	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sparta Brno 1–1–0 AFC Humpolec

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Date	Home	Score	Away
28/03/26 Czechia 4. Liga	AFC Humpolec	2-3 HT 0-1	Sparta Brno
23/08/25 Czechia 4. Liga	Sparta Brno	1-1 HT 0-1	AFC Humpolec

Standings · Czechia 4. Liga

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FK Bohumin	4	4	0	0	15	3	12
2	Kravare	4	4	0	0	15	4	12
3	FC Vratimov	4	3	0	1	9	4	9
4	Hlucin	4	3	0	1	8	4	9
5	Jiskra Rymarov	4	2	1	1	9	5	7
6	Opava B	4	2	1	1	9	7	7
7	FK Sumperk	4	2	1	1	8	6	7
8	SK Zabreh	4	2	1	1	6	4	7
9	TJ Novy Jicin	4	2	1	1	6	7	7
10	SK Stonava	4	1	1	2	7	7	4
11	Pusta Polom	4	1	1	2	7	9	4
12	Bridlicna	4	1	0	3	5	11	3
13	TJ Valasske Mezirici	4	0	2	2	4	8	2
14	SSK Bilovec	4	0	1	3	3	11	1
15	Frydek Mistek B	4	0	0	4	3	11	0
16	Frydlant Nad Ostravici	4	0	0	4	3	16	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sparta Brno	AFC Humpolec
FC Kurim	1-3 L	0-1 L
FC Spartak Velka Bites	1-2 L	3-2 W
SK Artis Brno B	1-3 L	1-5 L
Velke Mezirici	1-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: AFC Humpolec (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sparta Brno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
22/08	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
16/08	Zdar nad Sazavou Czechia 4. Liga	1-1	1-1	2	0	D
08/08	FS Trebic Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	1-2	9	4	L
13/06	FC Chotebor Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	2-1	7	2	W
06/06	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	1-3	6	4	L
31/05	SC Znojmo Czechia 4. Liga	0-3	1-5	–	–	L
23/05	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
20/05	SK Artis Brno B Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-3	4	3	L
08/05	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	1-2	4	4	L

AFC Humpolec

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Dosta Bystrc Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	FC Kurim Czechia 4. Liga	0-0	0-1	2	4	L
16/08	TJ Sokol Bedrichov Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	2-2	8	3	D
07/08	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-1	5	2	D
13/06	FC Spartak Velka Bites Czechia 4. Liga	1-2	3-2	–	–	W
05/06	SK Artis Brno B Czechia 4. Liga	0-5	1-5	2	4	L
30/05	Velke Mezirici Czechia 4. Liga	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
23/05	Havlickuv Brod Czechia 4. Liga	0-2	0-2	2	4	L
16/05	Sokol Tasovice Czechia 4. Liga	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
10/05	TJ Dalnice Sperice Czechia 4. Liga	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sparta Brno vs AFC Humpolec?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sparta Brno win (49%). Probabilities: Sparta Brno 49%, draw 23%, AFC Humpolec 29%.

How many goals are expected in Sparta Brno vs AFC Humpolec?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Sparta Brno 2.01 · AFC Humpolec 1.52), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sparta Brno vs AFC Humpolec?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.